Long term thinking seems to be a mind-set that very few have or can maintain. Wonder why this is.

Good stuff, Derek. I am sometimes guilty of getting into something without thinking of all the ramifications. Very good advice. Thanks.

Great analogy!

Love this post! It's not fun to hear if you're the one betting at $2 but you speak the truth :)

I loved it Derek. Good article. I'm in the process of doing two CD's this year and have not had a good past experience getting paid royaties in and out of the country. I also need a good publishing company. Any suggestion since you know the territory. Andrew Wartts and The Gospel Storytellers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOoXwxqeVzg

Great article Derek and valid points. Too often we act and only later think of the consequences when it is too late. How about if we count to 10 before making any serious decision. Keep it up!!

Unless there are only two people in the auction. Then one says, "Hey, I'll split it with you." This actually happens at charity events.

"so the smart choice is to not play that game at all."

The example I always think of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOHEU7Ykyg

Classic. Thanks for the reminder Derek

So TRUE! It's the ego working against us to convince us that we can't lose now. It's the reason the lottery works so well, especially with people who have less money. So you keep putting in and putting in and now even when you see that you are going to come out much worse - you can't back out now. I've been guilty of this, sad to say.

I remember you sharing this one with us Derek; don't spend money on the concrete for the sidewalk, until we know where we need to lay it. I try to exercise that idea in my day to day business affairs. Thanks for all of your suggestions and advice.

Reminds me of another scenario:

There are two antique shops facing each other across a small street. One day, the owner of the first shop puts a small mirror in the window for $10.

The second shop owner sees it and thinks: "That mirror is obviously worth more that $10" so he goes over and buys it. Then he puts the mirror in his own shop window for $20.

The first shop owner sees that and thinks: "Maybe he knows something I don't, I bet that mirror is worth even more than he is selling it for" so he goes and buys it back.

After a few more similar exchanges, the first owner is buying back his mirror for $50.

The second shop owner says to the first: "If we keep this up, we are going to get rich!"

The moral is that when you are in the game (or the endgame) you should know whether or not it is a zero-sum game you are playing.

love your analogy. It's the elephant and the rider story in a new way.
I was snowshoeing up the mountain where i live and made it 3/4 of the way and knew that i can make it to the top and i also knew that although i could make it, i would be in pain since i had a hip replacement surgery and i am supposed to "take it easy", but the glory of telling my friends i made it to the top and my ego - i could do it. the internal conversation was fierce as i turned to hike back down on an easy slope. Thanks for your sharing.

I'm taking bids - right here, right now - on this $100 bill. Rules as above.

I sound like everybody else - but I love your posts - simple, meaningful and relevant to me and my life. This story reminds me of another one - http://www.protolink.com/MexicanFisherman.html

Oh, I dunno.... the romantic who gets into a relationship they know (how does anyone ever REALLY know?) is a bad idea.... sure, I guess I could have thought it through. But I wouldn't have stopped myself. And on my deathbed, I'll probably still be glad I did.

Seems to me the blindness is often "It's going to work out different for me / my awesome product / this true love!"

We need to pause, and look at the statistics of the game we're getting into... and understand them... and admit that chances are we will land somewhere in the average...

...unless we plan to do something very different :)

Great advice. When I worked as a corporate leader I always insisted on people visualizing the end/exit/pitfalls when everyone was ecstatic about the latest top-of-brain idea (Facebook contests etc.). Depending on who was listening, I was either praised for saving the day with common sense, or labelled as a "negative thinker". :-)

Awesome reminder! Thanks for bringing this back to my attention. As others have mentioned in the comments, I too, have forgotten what the ultimatum is for some of the things I'm currently doing in my life.

Totally agree Derek.
Analysing life proyecting situations (the most "objective" way), is key to avoid situations like the 100$ bill.
Is a function of the Frontal lobe.
The capacity to build scenarios or situations in the future.

Just stop bidding at $49

Isn't this the idea behind a gambling habit? You get in far enough that you are then playing to protect your loss? I have seen this happen in business (mostly restaurants). Each month they are losing money or behind on bills (start paying vendors, ignore sales tax, then loan, then rent). Relationships? Yes. Ideas? Yes. Songs? Yes. Another good post, Derek.

Great! There is no gamification- its ALL a GAME.

That's why "Gamification is Broken":
http://newtechusa.net/agile/gamification/

Did I mention that CULTURE is a GAME?
www.TheCultureGame.com

Cheers,
Dan


Thanks for bring this to attention.

Or, you could do it like me. Think it all through, establish your priorities, then employ the “WTF Method."

Can totally relate to that. And just when I think I've learned that lesson BOOM - I'm looking back thinking "what the crap just happened *face palm" - funny and not at the same time. But I AM glad it doesn't happen often :)

So, is "It is better to have loved and lost, than to never have loved at all" illogical thinking, or logical thinking?

I love the message behind the post. Thank you, Derek.
One of my college professors did this experiment with a $20 bill and the highest bid was $500.
Astonishing how short sights can get people in big troubles. What amazes me more is how we can get trapped in the moment and refuse to cut losses after a short-sighted mistake.

I wonder how much the appeal of this rests on the notion that thinking it through will yield results that are as accurate as hindsight always turns out to be. Jackson Pollock famously said "I deny the accident." The beginning of that sentence is "I don't use the accident..." Perhaps, rather than trying to game life by thinking everything through to the last, we can learn to use the accident to our advantage.

Think any decision or choice you make all the way through. Definitely worth it in the long-haul. Some solid advice yet again, Derek!

I started writing this comment without any idea of where it was going to end up. Do I agree with what you said. Yes, it's a lesson I had to learn many times and expect to be taught again. Fortunately, there have been a few times where I was in the auctioneer spot.. those just about paid for the "lessons"

My point is...

I'm stuck here. How long do I keep writing?

Until I realized that I it's okay to let go.

Indeed. This one has come back to bite me numerous times. As someone who can be over analytical, I tend to move forward with ideas quickly in order to keep myself from not taking action, which is admirable, but there needs to be some balance as well. The Bible speaks of a similar analogy in Luke 14:28-30. I appreciate the reminder.
www.raheemmills.com

Great topic! Foresight is easier for the decisions with the fewest variables, and I guess it's the seemingly simple decision with subversive variables that is most humbling. It's not what you know you don't know, it's the what you don't know you don't know game that never ends.

My strength is strategy, so I have to be able to visualize through implementation, at least with a strong working hypothesize of what might happen, to create a strategy with any degree of viability, and be ready to help with fallback positions for what we couldn't anticipate.

My experience is that some people are incredible at doing the visualizing - artists, some entrepreneurs, inventors, designers... Some people are equally amazing at nailing implementation - programmers, operations managers, customer service reps....

Great games need both players. Great game players call on team mates to help them see what they can't - I hire support for my strategy development, and I'm a strategist. It's the blind spot we need to see.

It is hard to see the future, although I try to anyway, but like a rubber band, I snap back to where I stand, when my vision is obscured.
In the Present, I can settle.
In the Present, sink or swim.
From the Present I decide whether to begin or not begin.
And I believe I can smell a sour deal
And I believe I can sense a squeaky wheel
And I believe I can tell a tale or two about who leads who
And I believe that a Hundred Dollar Bill
is worth as much as an Ink Well and a Quill
And I believe that if you believe I will
it may be that I will...
And I believe it too may be
That I will will differently.

This is an interesting one. But it has a snag, too. A good idea is sometimes a bad idea in the long run, but a great idea in the short run. One must, of course, think things through, but not at the risk of doing nothing.

For example, if you have an idea, and are only constantly thinking in long term effects, it may never take root, and therefore, you may never get it off the ground. Does that mean it is a bad idea? No.. you waited too long and decided before you had the experience to really judge it.

Another example.. two bands.. Band #1 is constantly recording and re-recording their first album. They love the songs, but they want them to be perfect, so they invest in the best gear... only to discover their gear is obsolete by next year, when their album is nearly completed. so they decide to scrap the album and re-record it yet again, because after all, this is to be the defining first album. Everything has to be perfect. After two years, they complain the music industry sucks, everyone parts ways and not a single song sees the light of day.. as it 'cost too much emotionally and financially'

Band #2 sits around one evening, and they decide: "Let's release our album, the one we recorded on 4 track last year." They also love their songs, and they know it is not the best quality, but they believe it will sell with all their heart that this is it for this record. While they work on something better, they release it. A year later they have managed to sell a few of these, and their shows have garnered a following.. that quick decision made this happen. Now they are pumped to keep going, in spite the fact that there is a huge difference in sound quality between records.

I was always taught, make a quick decision, knowing that you can change your mind once you've started. So in your example.. I would have bid up to about 40 bucks, then realized this was a 40 dollar lesson in reading the terms better next time.. and creating a bid for a a signed 100 dollar bill from some famous guy named Derek. To make back my 40 bucks of course.

:)

Yes. For anything involving $$, a written contract or agreement is a good place to start. Deals with family members are extra tricky. Good to have an emergency fund, too, since we can't always predict how the game will go. Above all, if you get cheated, be honorable, regardless of how the other party is handling the situation. After taking stock and making the necessary course corrections so that it doesn't happen again, life begins to look quite wonderful again.

All this does is make me wonder what Derek Sivers got himself into that he didn't quite think all the way through! Well... that's not entirely true. This is so apropos to me, since I'm driven by passions which causes me to sometimes see things through rose-colored glasses. When the glasses come off (and they always do) it's not always too late to correct the course, but it sure can be costly! Thanks, though. I just wish I'd seen this about two weeks ago!

Hope you don`t mind that I have "borrowed" several of you talks for my own Japanese business seminars (and referring them to your name and TED.com)
This one needs to be put in that file :)
Great! Everything on my site is free for the taking. Advance permission granted. No credit needed. — Derek

Yes, sometimes we don't think to the end. But sometimes we do think too much about the negative possibilities. So it totally depends on the situation to be wise and know what to do. If a game is getting bad at the end and we can know it, we should not play it. But without risks on the other side we don't get anywhere.

Maybe I am writing this, because I think too much about the consequences and I should take more risks. - But Yes, it's a complete difference between knowing you loose the game visa beeing afraid to loose it.

The game ends when one decides to end it, win or lose.
There is never anything that much at stake, at any time.
Do things for the fun of them.
End it when it is not fun.
Who care if you get bruised, or lose a body.
No big deal.
The important thing is to KNOW you are playing a game.
Too many people are playing games that they don't know they are playing or have long since forgotten that they started it.

When you were 4 years old, what did you want to be when you grew up?
When did you change that?
Wonder why so many people are unhappy in their jobs and wish they were doing something else?

Great moral of the story... however, the hypothesis is contrary to any possible phenomena in the real world.

You're suggesting this hypothesis: "Let's do an auction for a $100 note. The legal tender used to participate in this auction is, coincidentally, also going to be using USD notes. "

Someone with a shred of intelligence at the auction would smell something fishy in the auction.
Like some people are color blind, I think some people are “fish smell blind”. ☺ — Derek

So true. Was telling my boyfreind this very same thing recently.
My first time commenting but I read alot of your stuff. Really appreciate your insight, and advice.

Good stuff as always Derek. It's a delicate balance to strike in life - a need to focus on the present moment but also ensure you aren't causing future problems. Throw in thinking/worrying about past events and it is very easy to get confused and stuck.

The Problem with the process of thinking things through in the more complex settings is that there are too many factors that are unseen, too many unintended consequence, too many outliers and too much uncertainty. If there is one thing the world gives you in copious amounts is uncertainty.

So to a degree a person has to gamble. Take on certain negatives for certain positives and know that surprises are going to take place one way or another.
Very good point. — Derek

Great piece, Derek. Sounds like adventures in owning a recording studio. LOL! "just one more piece of gear that my customers are asking for and I'll get MORE sessions." Steve Albini called it, "servicing the debt" meaning, if you can generate the cash each month to pay the debt, you think you're doing ok. And funny enough, you can keep taking out more leases as long as you continue to pay. It's a like a drug.

As you pointed out, eventually, you've got to pay the piper. I think the best thing that happened to us was the 2008 recession when the money stopped coming in and we nearly lost everything. But I consider myself one of the lucky ones...

I stopped buying gear and started using the studio to make recordings people would pay a premium for. Same gear, different customer and paying the musicians instead of the other way around.

Thanks again for the reminders.

Love this one, Derek. Good advice: Make sure the game you're playing is one you can win, or don't play it at all.

It's long been my maxim that before you step down hard on the accelerator pedal, ascertain if the brakes are in order.

Hi Derek. Terrific point and always always good to hear it. Just launched a site after three years of the 'oh oh, what have I done?' fear holding me back. I have known that once I launched I faced embarrassment in front of my peers. (Amazing how strong that fear can be.) - About a year back you advised me to test quickly and cheaply - that way you can fail quickly and cheaply and move on to the next test. :) So for 12 months I did that. And on last Friday, Jan 31st 2014 I showed my wares to the world. And now .... and now I beaver feverishly for the next few years, wondering 'how will this game end?' All the best mate, Pete

Reminder of days past. Staying present and observing, responding instead of reacting, learning with small steps from my heart. Blessings

Long term thinking and human nature are not good friends....probably a reason for many of our pains.....

I actually saw this game played for real in a negotiation class in the mid-1990's by the brilliant Prof Max Bazerman ("Negotiating Rationally"). I learnt a lot in those two days that I still use today.

Excellent article. I tend to make decisions based of what will be the effect in the next 3 to 5 years. Pretty soon, you start answering questions and talking about whatever comes in a conversation applying the same principles. It has always paid out.

Great advice. However there are times when things go wrong no matter how much pre-planning or good "game playing" we do. Some things we just don't have control of. But it's still good to "think it through" thoroughly. Thanks for posting this.

Ouch!

A pithy and practical reminder. Thanks Derek.

...the original reference is by Martin Shubik "The dollar auction game: A paradox in noncooperative behavior and escalation" Journal of Conflict and Resolution v15 (1971) pp.109-11 http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/173254?uid=3739696&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21103353199391 The original is a penny auction for a dollar bill. I guess inflation is 100x. :-)

Now they do not know what to do, to undo what they have done.

As Steven Covey would say "Begin with the End in Mind"

Hi Derek, I think about "how this will all end" all the time and as I watch my students, children and grandchildren enthusiastically push their way to one more new idea, new song, or gadget, I am sadly frightened for their future. Thus, I own a performing arts training center.
We are doing interesting work with our life changing programs. Wish I could
build one in every city in America. Hope all is good with you. I have missed you.
Michelle

Long term thinking, sunk costs, people learn about these concepts in school and then seem to put them away in a drawer that they never again open. This isn't just a metaphor, clutter has a lot to do with the issue. In a 24/7 connected world, people are less present than ever, and as a society, we're more in need of being present than ever. The thing is, one cannot think long term unless one can be present.

Wow. Great post.

It is challenging to consider the long term implications when your heart is set on wanting something so bad, you lose objectivity, and you want to bet, for that 0.001% chance that things would be different for you. When you're in that condition, it's called "hope". After all there is room in this world for miracles, right? Others who are not in that condition and have been through that state before, and have become wiser by the experience, and the bystanders, call it "foolishness". Call it what you want. So.

Fantastic article, Derek.

Yeah. Also known as setting yourself up for failure. Not everyone, but some people. I had a therapist tell me once that the reason I am single is because I pursue unobtainable women. That way when things don't work out, I don't blame myself. They were unobtainable. Not my fault. But I think the therapist was over-thinking it. I have dated plenty of obtainable women. How was I to know they were going to join the Peace Corps or try to convert me to fundamentalist Christianity or end up in the hospital from a cocaine bender? But then again, maybe I should have looked for the signs and been more aware? Maybe I didn't work hard enough to adapt? Maybe subconsciously I was looking for the subtle personality traits of unreliability and unobtainability. But let's face it, nobody wants to date a boring person. You want them to have that little bit of excitement and mystery. Not really any point to this comment, so sorry if you read it all the way to here. But I always enjoy your writing, Derek, because it makes me think and self analyze. That's awesome.

Thanks! Hopefully a lesson for political policy makers as well.

My name is Nick and But you will remember me from cd baby as NIXX. I finally started my first band with a singer four years ago she was a karaoke singer and I had never been in a band. now we are getting ready to go to Nashville. we are recording and will probably be on the radio within the next couple of weeks we will keep you posted. The point being is that we promised we would never play cover music ,we would get accepted on our own music. it was a long struggle but we thought it through and now we are where we want to be. You are right think it through you can't go back.

I have some sticky situations on the horizon. This comes at a good time for me to remember to think of the outcome before "I play the game".

Most of us are competitive. Therefore, we play to win. We may jump in impulsively. The best outcome may be to just not play. It is much better to go on to something valuable, something with a positive outcome, something that to which I can add worth.

Thanks for the important reminder.

Hi Derek,
This kind of reminds me of something I once read from management consultant/writer Peter Drucker. To paraphrase, he said beware of temporary solutions because the temporary often becomes the permanent.
glenn
Great quote! Thank you. — Derek

Long term thinking has been off the table for most business leaders for decades. That, I think, is because the mission statements have changed from "providing goods and services" to "making a profit" As musicians we are on the front lines of the "goods and services" team. If we don't deliver we don't get hired again. How does this apply to the Game? Don't take a booking in a place you don't belong. Be nice. Be honest. You might give up some short term revenue but you will develop life long fans.

Derek, Always stimulating ideas, so thanks... Like it or not, we've developed into a 'quick-fix' society. In no small part, this is due to our decreasing attention spans and increasing distractions. Throw in technology which seems to have a will of its own, and it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. It's something I struggle with every day, if not every moment!

When it comes to making decisions I tend to over think everything but in the end I'm glad I did.

Thanks for the food for thought Derek!
Although it is most certainly a great idea to think through the long term ramifications of our decisions in life, we must also understand that it is often impossible to actually calculate all of the possible outcomes. That's where "faith" comes in and one has to get in touch with ones gut feelings about the particular decision at hand... I have often marveled at my own and my friends abilities to transcend intellectual understanding and have this kind of faith in ourselves... something that is way beyond any of our mental calculations. To much contemplation can cut into one's ability to act... it's a balancing act really.
I like the old saying, "He who hesitates is lost."

When something spelled out with clear and, or, if, then, this, etc. results are much easier to figure out. But in life it's just not that way, so we do the best we can to anticipate the end results if we think and plan properly.

Very insightful article!

Derek this is so true and a valuable anecdote for my counseling practice. We often see couples who have evolved into destructive relationships who feel that they have invested too much to back out. Yet, the price paid ultimately can be their own dignity, safety and /or sanity. But they keep on raising the ante...

I think it's a lot easier to think about how the game will end with the more obvious potential "game changers" .. but those seemingly insignificant things that slowly creep into your daily routine and form into long-term habits that steer your destiny (without you noticing) are the most dangerous..

That's why men should NEVER get married! Divorce means alimony and child support payments while not having custody of the children. Men don't go in to marriage thinking it will end in divorce...yet 50% do.

Great advice.

Once again you blow my mind! I really loved this one Derek. Kind of makes me think of the old paint yourself into a corner thing. I will start thinking about the end of the game before starting a new one.

I would never get into that bidding war because I'm a fatalist. I don't gamble because I don't believe I can beat the house. I have probably missed out on many worthwhile opportunities because I'm so risk averse !
It makes a lot of sense to just try to not lose, instead of to try to win. — Derek

Reminds me of this poor guy who lost all his money playing a carnival game. Thanks for sharing, Derek. Makes you wonder about sunk costs and when to cut loose.
http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/197958/man-loses-entire-life-savings-on-carnival-game/

These words haunted me for a long time: "Oops! Didn’t think that one through, huh?" I'm better now, but I appreciate the reminder.

Does make some real good points. Thanks

thanks.... guilty

I have to learn the opposite lesson often: stop thinking and make a decision.

Thanks for the reminder, Derek. Particularly relevant to me at this moment as I have just beta launched a new digital platform for uplifting film and social action, www.eflixir.com. I have flirted with seeking investment throughout the development process, but with your guidance from "Anything You Want" nestled in my inner ear, I have resisted and made it to beta without taking a dime. Now time to build audience with grass roots tactics and see where it goes. It's the first film site that curates thousands of uplifting Hollywood movies and links them to thematically related non-profits so that viewers can immediately act on the inspiration they get from watching. In addition, a portion of every streaming fee goes to our national non-profit partner, Free the Children. So I have high hopes and ambitions, but always cautious not to lose sight of pragmatism in favor of excessive optimism and myopia. Thanks again for the reality check!

But... what if I just want to "win" - at ANY cost?!

http://moneypowerwisdom.com/to-you-what-is-success/

Very good lesson in that thought process.....will try to store it in long term memory.

thanks,
rada

you gotta have limits set, so you know when to walk, and move on to the next. and not get taken for a ride playing the game :)

L

Hi Derek,
Long time, I adopted the practice of thinking things through a long time ago. It has served me well. Not saying I have not made mistakes, sometimes thinking too long about things can result in lost opportunities however, I tend to listen to my gut.
Damon

Dear Derek, loved it! A quick thought--> Only problem is how does one THINK things through without allowing the blinding, self-convincing emotion of optimism to come in- the not wanting to lose out, the emotional "desire" or "greed". How does one learn to FEEL things through (rather than think things through)?? It's a tough one.

For some even if they lose; they are in it for the joy ride! It's that oh well what the hell it was fun while it lasted!

Student loans, student loans, student loans.

Most lives, I think are littered with the detritus of'the expediant urge! Am I going to regret saying that out loud? However I know my subject personally and well. Should reality follow it'll cost me money! That's how it ends, That's why it was started! Just observations from My remaining brain cell! Good show!
Ed

I think for me I would sum up this article as being about the difference between risk and calculated risk, and having the intuition to know the difference between the two, when to engage in either, and when to get out of either.

Love this post... wise, and great analogies... but another wise man once quipped, "A man who does not plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door."
--Confucius

Its probably happened to more people than not who are too embarassed to admit it.
I might be one of them?!

Thanks for sharing, Derek. What is the significance of the photo you included?
If you get into a bullfight, then the bull has his sights on you like this, you might be feeling, “ Oops! Didn’t think that one through!” — Derek

I don't know how the game ends... but I know it doesn't end well. It's definitely about the endgame (in part)... but also very much about a lack of awareness of the complexity of the games we're playing. Great question and great post, Derek...!

Sometimes you have to take a chance on a loosing venture because there is a lesson to be learned that can be learned no other way. Your endgame then becomes your win-loss record at the end of the season.

Hey Derek, great article and great point. I think it's best to save money and make my own hundred dollars that I could sell if I wanted to (I wouldn't). Thank you for being an inspiration to many, and as an aside, a great, semantically organized website of your records, favorite books, etc. Hands down, my favorite web profile I've seen. I'm a programmer, and you're continually the reason I stop and think "why am I here," and "what are my visions of my greatest potential" rather than "this sucks," or "I'm not getting anywhere," like I have before. So, thanks!
Thanks Keifer! ☺ — Derek

"By $51 I’m happy - I’m going to profit now." What am I missing here?

It's kind of a moot point that's distracting from the real point, and maybe I should have removed. But I thought it was interesting that whoever is auctioning a $100 bill with this runner-up-loses rule, will profit once the bids have hit $51, since that's at least $51 + $50 = $101. — Derek

OOh, good one, Derek!

Nice one Derek! Good advice, I think everyone has got into a situation at least once in life that wasn't thought through, including me, can think of a few! it's a good thing we learn from our mistakes,.. well most of the time :)

I am glad you are writing. Please keep sending out your thoughts. They are valuable. Thank you.

We are impulsive and often have a "live for today" attitude. Very hard to determine outcomes in life

Nice thought provoking article Derek...!

Good story and this is a good example to be careful what you get into. I think we all get caught in sort of some kind of trap if we are getting out there in your business. You just hope it does not cost you to much in the lesson. TerryLee

Great reminder!
Just like in chess: play whatever opening but you must play the endgame in mind.

Another insightful article, Derek.

Thanks Derek for sending new article
Audio-Rarities
Jan

At what point does a calculated risk become a stupid decision - that's always my question. When you're at the bottom of the hill looking up, you don't know what obstacles are on the path to the top - or even partway up. I've taken calculated risks, and a few wild ones, all my life, and most have not paid off, but that's not going to stop me from taking more. It's been said, ad nauseam, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result", well bullshit, I'll keep going after things until I either get somewhere, or I die trying. Of course the deck is stacked against us - that's the way in this capitalistic world (yes, I said WORLD), and it's not the natural order of things, and it's no accident. Still, I'll go to my grave beat down, depressed, disgusted, and whatever else before I'll BS myself, or before I quit living - and I mean "quit living" while I'm here in this life. If I ever decide to literally quit living, I will literally quit living.

If Michael Jordan, Merle Haggard, John Fogerty, or Troy Aikman would have thought it through, looked at the statistics on how many who go for it actually get it, saw how dismal the odds were, we would have been deprived of what these guys gave us.

One of my bosses once called this the "Monkey and the Coconut" effect. The (probably apocryphal) story being that you hollow out a coconut, put a grape or some nuts inside and leave a very small hole that a monkey can just get his hand through. When the monkey grasps the item he can no longer get his hand out. While he is struggling in frustration you can bag him. I have seen it in business umpteen times. Very human and very sad.

The game will never end so long as both of the last two bidders believe that if they can just make more money than the other and therefore always outbid them they will eventually win.

could tie this in with 'less is more' principle.

your enthusiasm could take your down a good path,
but your new energy could overwhelm the positive
side, as you move away from the essence of the thing,
and make the process to involved, cumbersome, and
invasive: it obstructs the original purpose.

Your picture reminds me of an old Times ad showing Caesar surrounded by his 'friends' with knives behind their backs and the slogan, 'Have you ever wished you were better informed?'

The trouble is, you can think things ahead as much as you like, they never pan out in the way you imagine. More useful, and much less obeyed, is that gut feeling telling you not to get involved in the first place.

Hadn't seen where you were heading until you got to $51, then the gates to possabilities opened. Up until five years ago I had no real passion in my life.worked everything around the money I thought I needed to have to get to the things everyone inferred I needed to have. I survived in the fog of envey and panic that I was being left behind. Thank you for your description of the perfect suckers game, I can see how I had been playing it for decades.

Hello Derek,
I've just came to my office and started my work day from reading Your post
and this is exactly what I needed for the morning. Yesterday I had very difficult meeting and had to decide if continue some project or leave it. My Yesterday way of thinking was: continue=some potential benefits, leave=feel of lost because it's "my baby"-project. TODAY You reminded me that I can switch my mindset and check if I know what's the name ofe this game. And fortunatelly I know the end of it. Ps. Decided to leave and be free ;-) Thank You Derek

Thanks for that, Derek. That's the most thought-provoking and insightful thing I've read in a good while. Fantastic analogy.

This game is taught by Dr. Thiagi, one of the most famous gurus of facilitation in the world. The debriefing of the results is where the learning starts.

Thanks Derek. I sometimes find myself in such quandary and then I remember the song: "You In Too Deep You Aint Never Gonna Get Out." I also remember in such situations the days when I had nothing, cared for nothing but truly owned the whole wide world. Ennobling piece. - Think it through and have a lot of patience.

When I was a young man I was full of angst as I imagined being married with a lovely wife, 2.4 children, a labrador, BMW in the garage and mortgage nearly paid off. Then Doctor Death would knock at the door and request my presence.

No one else seemed to question why we are here. I did. Like being on a Magical Mystery Tour except that I knew the ending was a bit like Thelma and Louise. Just could not get my head round it at all. And did not believe in "belief".

Travelled, tried various "spiritual" practices to no avail. Then a friend wrote to me. I thought she might be a) nuts, b) deluding herself, c) hypnotised - but I did trust her sincerity so had to check it out.

Fast forward - all those sages from the past Lao Tzu, Kabir, Rumi, Chuang Tzu, knew what they were talking about. As Chuang Tzu put it "I am off to visit the room where Light is born".

But and it is a big but, whatever you are aware of is not you. Unity is beyond any "experience" so every description is a lie.

So Derek, you are spot on about looking down the road and thank you for another great post.

My friend has a site here http://www.spiritualenlightenment.in/ - but nothing changes. The world trundles on whether or not we get off the wheel.

Bit like Everest. Why climb it? Who knows but the climbers. And even they probably wonder sometimes!

Also, we cannot predict the future and we are not separate from anything else. Creation is a unity and no action is individual. So the universe is "doing me" here and you there. In that sense everything is determined but we cannot predict the future. So ultimately we come back to "faith" - which I thought I had expunged in my teens! Act with sincerity and faith is all we can do.

Thank you.

It's such a true and provocative point you make. Also too, something to consider, is our inherent nature to not give up. So perhaps, even knowing the end game, we are sometimes not deterred because ego or stubbornness may be in the way. But I tell you what, I'll think more closely about bidding on ebay from here on out. :)

Begin with the end in mind !- Steven Covey ::)))

It was a good read, thanks Derek. A wise reminder.

I like the example with the relationship.

But I also think that you can never plan for everything in advance. And attempting to do so is in vain. Especially in Germany, doubt and fear will cause people not even to start things. Life is about surprises.

But with the mentioned bet, the outcome can be calculated. Similar to the ‪global warming‬ or ‪peakoil‬, ‪peakcoal‬, ‪peakfertilizers‬, ‪TTIP and so on.

"And why should I know better by now
When I'm old enough not to?" (Beth Orton, Stolen Car)

Cool story ... there's a lot to be said for thinking things through, that's for sure!

What if losing something leads us to gaining something more valuable?
How can we gain if we don’t lose?

Truth is that nothing in life is predictable, and not even a super natural power can predict the future. But one thing that matter is that in order to grow, we need to experience, and in order to experience, we need to lose sometimes. This is how our instincts and guts become stronger and we can learn to rely on them.

Now, there are 2 types of people; 1- those whose actions are based on their feelings and instincts 2- those who play safe by overthinking, preplanning and calculating (if I am not wrong, you have been talking about the front part of the head which is about logic and calculations and the lower back of the head which is related to instincts and guts)

People in the 1st group tend to follow their instincts. They are more prone to get hurt or to lose. Why? Because they don’t play safe, they take risks, they are not scared of what might happen etc… and because of that they can put themselves in lots of danger; however, these people are more flexible, they like to face challenges, they are determined, they don’t give up and they learn faster than others on how to deal with challenges and as a result they grow faster because they keep making mistakes but at the same time they try to find solutions and to learn from their mistakes.

People in the 2nd group tend to play safe. They don’t even dream of big things. They want to have savings, pension plans, buying houses to be investment for their future. They don’t risk, they don’t do crazy things, and finally they tend to plan their lives way ahead. They are scared of consequences. What is the root of all these traits? Fear! They are scared of losing, they are scared of changes, they keep calculating, they don’t like challenges, and they prefer to stay away from trouble.

So, I would say that our actions must be a reflection of wisdom and not fear. If we feel strongly about something, we should not ignore or suppress our feelings. We should go to the end of the road and see where it takes us. Regardless the positivity or negativity of the result, we have experienced something that we need to remember the lesson we have learned.

Instincts are directly connected to the source of wisdom. And yes, life is a game that needs to be played “wisely” not “fearfully”. And fear always blocks wisdom, and wisdom is only gained by making mistakes, experiencing and learning.

I personally have always had instincts about everything I wanted to do, but most of times I ignored them because I was scared if I was wrong. But it’s been a while ago since I realized that every single feeling and instinct I have ever had about anything, they have all been correct but I always destroyed them with my “second thoughts”. Though, I have done many crazy things in my life; things that have scared family and friends to death (because they are safe players)! Spending a lot of money to develop my idea, which has put me into lots of trouble has been one of the crazy things – But! Not only I have learned lots and lots of things because of this, I have extremely enjoyed the part that involves solving troubles! Life is only interesting when we have to figure out ways to fix problems. So, I am definitely not miserable because I have lots money. My family is hoping me to sell my violin and pay off my whole debt, which is something I can do, but I don’t want to do. Not because I am attached to my extra ordinary wonderful beautiful violin, but because there is no challenge in making money that way.

No matter what we do, whether we lose or we win, we are experiencing…

My mother met her soul-mate when I was 3. Who would think that the sweetest, kindest, most thoughtful, and wonderful man with so much dignity, class and sophistication, accidentally, enters into my mom's life while she was already married (with 2 children) to someone very handsome, “supposedly” caring and loving husband? Who would think the most committed mother and wife who would sacrifice herself to serve people would leave her marriage for someone else! Neither my step dad nor my mom were guilty of loving each other while one was in a marriage and the other one waited for her for 6 years to be ready, especially in a middle eastern country where divorce is like taboo! Would I be happy if my mother suppressed her feelings for my step dad and stayed with my biological father till now? Nope! I would be very mad at her. It might look that breaking a marriage was against morals and everything, but the outcome is that she is happy, her children are happy, her husband is happy, and her ex is free to do whatever he wants!

I know the society urges us to follow morals and rules and they call it humanity! For the society it looks better if a mother sacrifices herself and her children and live with someone who is tagged as a husband and father than to follow her feelings and have a wonderful life with a wonderful man.

I know it sounds like taboo, but there is no rules or logics in life. There are things that are meant to happen and things that are not meant to happen. It's about destiny. We cannot force something from happening or not happening. We should do what make us deeply happy while we care about others’ feelings. Losing a lot of money to try an idea might not be wise “on the surface”, but what are we going to do with that money eventually, anyway? Burry it along with our dead corpses in the grave?

This has big implications for the music biz. Musicians are such romantics.

We don't want to learn how how to think these days and certainly aren't teaching our children who experience far too few "consequences" to their actions

I think there is a bit of risk in everything worth doing. I do agree though, a lot of that risk could be minimized if the big picture is taken into consideration. I think people are a little obsessed with positive thinking. I definitely believe in the law of attraction and positive thinking but you need a bit of realistic thinking to go along with it! Great job as usual.

I think It's not how you say..when you raise to 101$ if you loose you'll loose 101$ not just 1$..it's different..however it's right sometimes people think they win something but in fact they loose!The game will finish when you lose the belief you'll win something!

I think there is a whole spectrum between "not thinking enough and suffering the consequences" (as very wel described in this post) and "thinking too much and suffering because of inaction or anxiety".

I think a first useful step is to try to find out if you are more prone to "overthinking" or "underthinking".

#KnowThyself

Risk, Reward , instinct, and emotion are all part of the end game and applied to individuals forward thinking. If that individual also applies a work ethic which produces quality results, this recognition should be rewarded along the way.
I suggest investing time and effort into scenarios that have many positive outcomes on the game timeline, applying a hard work ethic and realistic expectations, yet allowing for the ultimate dream to be realized.

What if you realized your dream, then the owner of the game changes or manipulates the rules? You write a book, and share your experience for those who follow and learn from that experience. Experience makes us all more wealthy. Http://www.lindachorney.com/store.php
The MoneyBall of the music game.

"the smart choice is to not play that game at all" Good one Derek

It's true that we should consider outcomes. Howevever, if we had given it a lot of thought, many of us would not be artists.

Niice Post, Derek.

Is short-term thinking the result of greed, ignorance, reckless abandon or good ol' fashion adventure/adrenaline seeking?

From the many more examples Commenters have left, it sounds like it could be any number/combination of these.

I think what's most important is ones positive outlook on life, how to treat others, and that materialism/consumerism is an overrated media frenzy.

These are tough, but should be cultivated bit by bit each day, so when one inevitably encounters a losers game or finds they are in a losers game, they will have the courage to never step in or to remove themselves.

redirection. thank you.

Great advice. You sound like a chess player :-)

I call it WISDOM.

Great advice and perfect timing for me as I carefully, but boldly step into a new startup biz. Thanks for the article.

That's a great lesson, especially for relationships. However I need to be cautious of being too cautious in life. Looking back, I can see where things I thought were risky actually turned out for the good and I missed it.

I played this "game" once with my life on the line when I was just 9. I was in a 12 y.o. swimming class held in a lake (there were no 9/10/11 y.o. classes, but I was a very good swimmer from Florida). The instructor was teaching us surface dives at the far ropes where the sectioned off water was deepest. After instruction, he challenged us to swim to the bottom (he estimated 20-30 ft deep), grab a hand full of mud (for proof) and return. I was the only one that took up the challenge. I started down. The water was murky so it was impossible to tell just how far you had left to go, but you desperately wanted to reach the bottom so you could kick off and reach air faster. About half way, I was trying to ascertain where the point of no return was. Luckily for me I did make it to the bottom, got my mud and made it back...BARELY. I doubt 1/100th of a second passed before I created a vacuum around my classmates sucking in all available air. I had been down approaching 1 minute (it was closer to 30 feet and the pressure was bad). I suspect that was the last time the teacher issued that challenge. Neither he nor I thought that through very well.

I often ask my kids : "What did you think would happen ?" It's one thing to have been wrong. It's quite another to not have an answer. You analogy makes the point quite well, thanks .

Damn, and I was so close! I'll get a check to you soon Derek. Where's my skeptic hat?
Another case of "buyer be-aware"...

I'm just glad I'm not the guy offering $150 for $100 :) Great blog Derek! Thanks for sharing with us all!

Derek, it is always beneficial thinking about the end. But in the end we are always dead. There are many variables that will affect the outcomes in life, such as network, luck and skills. Some of which exist now and some which have to be acquired. It is dynamic not static. There will be no outcome until you begin something. Starting is the most powerful influence. Once you start, you can determine the route you have to take, versus what you want to take. And hey, mistakes are made on the route taken, but sometimes that is beauty of living. It just makes one feel more alive because one has to do something to recover from that mistake. Does one take the 10 count when they get a hard right to the jaw or get up and continue the fight. My proposal would be to simply follow the old saying to get guidance "Visualize not what is possible, but what is impossible, by visualizing what is impossible, you begin to see that it is possible". And what you will find is that almost everything is possible.

It's one of the things that I try so hard to keep in mind when I make decisions.

Wisdom is doing today what you will be happy with tomorrow.

Never easy when we are caught up in the moment.

Great article.

You always get me thinking, have a great day:)

Hey Derek, really nice one. BTW this game is called Penny Auction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bidding_fee_auction a type of auction which makes everyone pay. Rather ingenious way to rip people off.

Your observations are correct and it will be worse before it gets better. Long terms thinking requires actual thinking, and this is something we are using less and less. In order to go into such game, it requires really little effort and funds. A large percentage of the people goes through life without engaging into some deeper thought. Just look at mindless games on the mobile phones.

I have idea about a service that would 'augment' thinking and thought this is a thing that can't fail. But, then I started really thinking, everyone will think it's a good idea, but thinking is hard, people don't like to expend effort and most likely it would fail, however great idea it might be. So, I put it in back burner, for a day when I have free time to do something for myself.

Brilliant Analogy and the lesson couldn't have been more apt! But at the end it's about balancing short and long term. As they say, "Good Leaders integrate the 50,000 feet bird's-eye view of the world with ground-level worm's eye view"

the decisions you make today will affect where you'll end up in ten years.

The Watchmen of Israel...JACOB.. The Watchmen of "Israel" are a group of officially appointed Canadian Jewish men & women TO WITNESS! in a decade long semi undercover mission in Canada & (with associative awareness of Governments of Canada & Israel ).. ARE READY! to give their findings to the World of their WITNESS of the Presence of the Living God in His Mission & His servant/Son Christ Jesus, aka Jacob...all together known as The Messiah for His Mission of the fulfillment of the teachings for the Kingdom Of God and to offer His ADVANCEMENTS for the World...

Everything has an up side and a down side. To a significant degree we focus primarily on the up side with not enough emphasis on the down side. Weigh them both and choose wisely.

Everything has an up side and a down side. To a significant degree we focus primarily on the up side with not enough emphasis on the down side. Weigh them both and choose wisely.

Everything has an up side and a down side. To a significant degree we focus primarily on the up side with not enough emphasis on the down side. Weigh them both and choose wisely.

Hi Derek:-)
Very interesting, thanks! I think if one can be independant as much as possible, one then has the freedom of choice and a lack of the pressure of debt. No one walks the journey perfectly, but I do see if integrity is in tack, it helps one not to get stuck in a mud puddle somewhere...gives the freedom to keep moving forward and exploring!
Thanks Derek!
Have a great week:-)
Rachel

Interesting. Long term thinking is not something that comes naturally to most people. Understanding or even considering the consequences of our choices, is a train of thought rare among humans, IMO. But it's one reason why I require all my clients to create a vision for each and every goal we set together. Because if you envision your life, now that this particular goal has manifested, how it will look, sound, smell, taste, feel, you will become a lot clearer about whether you want this goal. And then, we create a plan to get there, so that all the new opportunities (ooh, a squirrel) that come along to pull your attention, can be evaluated in terms of this goal and this vision.

Without that, we're just walking down a path with blinders on.

Yeah, derek....I've been there before. I Learned a valuable lesson. It's easy to be sucked into a situation without considering hidden costs like, insurance, taxes, maintenance, etc. I was lucky enough to get out from under, but I know several people who couldn't. Thanks for sending this. It's always a good to be reminded.

One of my mentors has always said to me, "begin with the end in mind" I think it's a Stephen Covey quote - but it is so true. Even though we never know exactly what will happen, we can at least stop and think about how we want the end to be, and then check that dream against reality.

Thanks for the reminder.

Gavin
Greenlight Email Marketing
greenlightup.com

Very thought provoking. Most people see the glamour in the gamble and the thrill in the game. I have even said to myself that I would never play against the odds, but....here I am again! Thanks

Hi Derek,
Thanks again for sending this article I always enjoy the emails you send us.
Been studying this morning...it seems to come down to what you really, really want and, being clear on that. 99% of most people don't really know what they want in life. Knowing what you want will make your decision clear. Thanks Derek
Arthur

Good point, Derek, I agree! However, illogical and often erroneous choices that we sometimes make might result in a sudden enlightenment in an area which seems to have no connection to your error...

This seems very similar to the mindset that makes penny auction sites like QuiBids work. Once you've paid for a few bids, you're on the hook for some cash and the fear of losing is stronger than rationality. The allure at the beginning is the same—"$0.50? Why not?"

And the continues success of these sites is proof this is a real phenomenon, not just a thought experiment.

I guess wisdom is about listening and checking with your true self .
Most of the significant events and choices we make in our lives tend to be quite spontaneous initially . Partners , moving , businesses . Cd baby evolved into something u couldn't have imagined at the beginning . But at some stage the above senario plays out . And success is about recognising the difference and accepting outcomes and ultimately forgiving yourself when u jump in to things with eyes closed .

i find myself saying on stage:
play it now, learn it later...
uggh.

This game ends when people stop thinking about getting advantage over everyghing in life. This competition is a dualism to be overcome in order to enhance human kind evolution, there are the human race in different colours and levels of vibration throughout evolution, consciousness and awareness.
Musicslly Anaya

This was an integral point in the premise of the 1983 movie "War Games". A NORAD computer appears to be on a path that will lead to the launching of missiles that will inevitably lead to nuclear war. The young hero challenges the computer to a game ("thermonuclear war"), which the computer eventually "learns" is much like tic-tac-toe, in that it ultimately recognizes that "the only winning move is not to play."

The moral of the story, perhaps: life is full of traps and pitfalls, best know that ahead of time ... of course anyone assessing things ahead of time, in terms of what the highest common good might be, that could come of the game, might have picked out the trap ... also, asked the one auctioning the $ 100 if they'd like to skip that, go for coffee and brainstorm some ideas ... to give away. :-)

Hi Derek:

"Your thoughts? Please leave a reply:" ... LOL ... before doing so, getting some practice in thinking something through. Perhaps the moral of the story is to be found in the responding, itself ... i.e., the process, of doing so.

Love getting your emails.

Thx - Cam

As the article points out /* It’s hard to think through the long-term implications of everything we’re doing now. */
When we are playing the game ( winning in the bet , quitting an emotional relationship, avoiding procrastination etc. ) , we need to be aware that we are playing with our emotion ( preprogramed reprogrammable mind ) . In the mind, strong emotions ( if triggered ) overrides the rationality/logic . One has to deal with emotion prior to playing the game.
Now the question is how do we deal with the emotions ( reprogram the mind ) ?
There are multiple techniques 1) Meditation 2) Contemplation etc .
Now we have the choice, 1) whether to embrace these well known techniques ( takes time and effort ) OR 2) spend the time and effort in keep whining .

You know, I purposefully did not respond to this right away; I wanted to think this through, at least to some degree, before responding; in my case, in reference to what lesson I might draw out from the story (besides the obvious one, don't play the game ... it's not really an auction, after all, for something of value ... a trick perhaps, for the unwary).

Auctions are a great way to determine value; something which will vary on any given auction day, as well; but we can't bid for smarts ...for that, at least sign up for Derek's emails ... :-)

Thinking things through, though, will always be a challenge the more complexity there is to the variables involved; avoiding twisting something to our advantage, however, as the one auctioning the $ 100 bill would be doing here to the peril of the unwary, perhaps a good start; embracing a larger view or awareness of humanity and our human needs, versus trying to play things always to our own advantage, perhaps another step forward, as well; a step onwards fostering the common good; the highest common good, at least, we might be able to perceive at a particular time.

If more people did that, there would no doubt be fewer of these types of games on offer, out there ... it seems there are plenty of them, there to trap the unwary ... even if having them out there serves some kind of purpose ... i.e., if only to teach some the lesson of learning to be wary; a backhanded type of lesson though; better to learn that one here; thinking something like a response to this story through.

Trust ... the final frontier ... the more useful things that are out there, and shared ... perhaps the more trust that ensues and develops as well. Now, if I asked ... "I've a $ 100 bill here I'd like to put to work somewhere" ... maybe a different auction might result ... where ideas are offered up. :-)

Seek to draw the lesson out that may be there, in any circumstance or story; almost an unspoken aspect of stories, and why they are told; each presents an opportunity to draw out a lesson; then of course, move on ... :-)

Thanks again, Derek, you've had me thinking again; developing my skill, as best I can ... along the way ... in thinking things through.

All the best - Cam

Yes. Isn't this so true?

A person much smarter and wiser than me (that's "I" for the grammarians and smartasses) said, "There are no good things or bad things, just things". I guess we all must decide what is best for us.

Another point here, if we could foresee obstacles when we're beginning a journey, there would be much less grief, but the fact is that we foresee very little, if anything.

Time's up! I guess we're all to cautious or too smart to take me up on my offer (Comment #14). Not a single bid in 24 hours, so I guess I'll keep the money!

Hi Derek. I always love your posts.
I seem to play the "donkey" only by my selection of men in romantic encounters. The short term marraige to the guy who did'nt work and fabricated that he was making substantial money in stocks, the partner who purchased a home that sucked up his entire monthly paycheck for the mortgage, and the married guy (who I had the common sense judgement to run from at the starting go). My life was balanced and highly responsible until I was introduced to committed relationships.

This is an excellent thing to remember when people are telling you about the latest and greatest MLM scheme. They will ALL ultimately fail, just like bidding for the $100 bill. Unless the product or service is something that you want, and would get anyway if they sold it at your corner store, AND there is a definite advantage to buy it through the MLM company ASIDE from the "opportunity," your proper response is "no, thank you."
Then, if you DO join a company solely to get their product, you can share that same opportunity with others HONESTLY, and with no fear of losing friends downstream. If the product or service truly has high value, that is where the opportunity lies--NOT in the Marketing plan.

Interesting- is it irrationality, pride or maybe an effect or possible externalities?

Among externalities:
- winning a bidding war in front of others
- possible PR (?) in some cases

Maybe more?

What if you start the bid at $99? It would be unlikely someone would rationally bid $100 next, right?

Wanna hear a weird story? This actually just happened. Yesterday in fact.

I got this posting from Derek, what? two days ago? At the moment I thought, "Hmmm, I need to read this. Gotta lotta' stuff to get to though, but...I'll put this on my special interest list."

Where I live, the mail came Wednesday, February 5 @ 12:00 noon the way it always does in this tiny Texas village (literally, a village). My wife hands me an envelope and says, "Hey honey? Looks like a check?" and walks away. I open it up. It's just short of $4k. Whoa, I'm thinking, "that doesn't suck?" I look at the check,but, something feels odd about this arrangement? There's no attached explanation, no perforated check record or documentation of any kind? It has all my info right, obviously, because it came to me at my residence, but, the check looks odd. I really scrutinize it's appearance until, then, I notice something? "This isn't right is it?" I ask myself. There isn't a "live" signature. It's a photocopied signature of someone or something else and the check says it's drafted from an account of a "financial" corporation. "Well" I think, "some idiot just gave it to the right guy, huh?" I get my keys and am getting ready to go deposit my brand new "hard-earned" fortune.

Everyone at my bank knows everyone so I go to my usual teller and ask her, "Is there anyway you can verify whether a check is legitimate or not? Hold on, wait a minute, I mean, can you inquire about whether or not it's funds are available?" The teller looks at the check and asks, "You mean like when you use a credit card? I mean, like, well, we're a bank, we can't just do that? We're not like a credit card issuer or a merchant." Then another teller comes over. She says, "Well, we can look up whether or not there's been any activity on this account recently. I guess we can try that. Do you want me to?" By then I'm starting to get embarrassed and a little flustered, "No, just deposit it. Go ahead." I'm actually beginning to feel a sense of indignation, like, "C'mon, don't be messing with my money? Just give it to me." Right then she said something that stopped me dead in my tracks, "I can tell you this though, if I do deposit this check, our bank will credit your account for the check, but, you're the person taking responsibility for the amount." "Whaaaaat?" I said,"how doe's that work?" By now I've got two tellers and two branch managers that have come over and taken a personal interest in what's going on. Then, one of the tellers tell me, "There's been no activity for the last three years." Then it hit me, "I've been petting a rattlesnake."

Well, I'll make it short. I've been reading lately about situations where some criminals from Nigeria or Russia will try to run these short cons whereby they send you a fictitious check that's not worth the paper it's written on. They're thinking some poor old sod (me) will gladly deposit it thinking, "Hey, I'm rich!" Then, through some back channel shenanigans they gain access to your account and begin making drafts against this "new" deposit from your account without you being aware of it. Meanwhile, you're 100% liable for the amount of their drafts. It can get ugly real quick.

Right then I give the teller the check and walk away.

As it turns out this is the second time in two weeks where some rotten egg has tried to gain access to my "sizable" fortune. The first one was a play on some absurd "auto-advertising" decals you're supposed to drive around with on your car. I spotted that one with a little searching on snopes.com and "boom" there it was. But,this one almost worked. I'm sooo glad I walked away and trusted my gut.

Then, when I got back home I started to open my mail and turn on my computer.

That's when I see this little meditation from Derek were he's talking about almost exactly what I've just experienced up close and personal.

You're certainly right Derek. Thinking through the implications of what I had almost fallen for was very hard...and tempting.

This is a valuable lesson. And the flip side of this is the fear of making a wrong decision, analysis paralysis from too many choices, and the risk of doing nothing - all of which can also be costly in the long term too.

I like the example you give,take risks but always count the cost first,I personally will jump in headfirst and often win.Whilst the times I have lost are an opportunity for re-evaluation.

Great reminder. I sometimes find it hard to find the balance between "thinking things through" and "over-thinking" to the point of inaction. Any thoughts on that?

This is a great concept.

On the other hand (this is coming from a classic contrarian) one can overthink things so much that opportunities are lost. To quote (freely) Obi Wan: Trust the force, young master Luke.

Enter governing dynamics and the Nash equilibrium. The two should agree to bid 1$ and 2$--and split the profit (assuming they can speak with each other).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium

On the opposite end, if all you do is look 10 miles down the road at the end result - you might never take a single risk for anything and end up bitter, bored, and unhappy as well.

This made me think of Good Will Hunting.

I had to read this twice. You can guess why. The type of person who needs this advice most is the one who can't quite get it right off. First of all, thank you. Secondly, it's worth keeping in mind that sometimes love is worth more than wisdom; although I'm one who needs to think ahead more, I'm not necessarily worse off (yet) for having loved against reason. Thanks again.
--Ben

Did not know this one before. Shows how important long-term thinking is!

There is a balance to strive for… I agree to think things through as much as possible. For me, though, there may be that moment as the Dali Lama suggests, to take the risk as in Love and Cooking…. We all make it to the other side no matter how is appears in the doing so….. Wishing joy and well Being….

Derek,
As usual you nail it.
The point is truly delicate: why do most of us not plan ahead and evaluate whether the Play is worth the Candle? We seem to be affected by miopia of all sorts - sentimental, financial, professional, even physical.
I fail to give an answer that fits all, but I do think we have tools to remind ourselves and persuade ourselves to make reality checks to help us.
Thanks for the down to earth note.

Awesome analogy, Derek. Have to wonder how it would play out if you actually tried it.
Have you ever looked into the Long Now Foundation (http://longnow.org/) and their Long Bets (http://longbets.org/)?

Very wise, its another way of saying--------------Begin with the end in mind----from the 7 habit of Highly effective people-------covey

When I produced the "Singer's Workout" dvd singing lesson, I came to the set with the finished art work to show everyone involved. The affect was palpable. Suddenly everyone knew what they were doing was going to become a product. I could tell from that moment how everyone stood a little taller as they realized this was a serious production.
So, my advice to my students is create the end result and work backwards through all the steps. Make a time line along with a financial breakdown of the costs for each step in that time line.
This will help you bring your dreams into reality.
As a musician I truly believe it's essential to have something to leave your audience with after your performance i.e. a CD; a recording; something they can share with their friends and remember you by.
Kelvin Throupe once said " Did you ever notice pilots who fly sky divers like to get paid in advance? "
All musicians are sky divers. Do it from the heart and try to flex good judgement in the process so it is a memorable experience that you can be proud of at the end of the day.

If you can see the end result of your actions been exactly the result you want that's great. For example if you are employed by a window cleaning company and build a relationship with several clients, and you get an idea to start your own window cleaning business; you will be assured of success if your clients pledge to support you if you start your own business. Then a bank loan to startup will succeed because you can show that your earnings will cover the loan. However if you have no desire to be a window cleaner and just need a job to pay your way, your lack of desire for entrepreneurship despite the opportunities staring you in the face won't fire any ambitions to succeed. In most cases you need money to make money, however if you start something you don't really want to in most cases it will end in failure, but if you are motivated by desire to do something, that desire alone will bring you success, not necessarily financial success, because financial success is not the only kind of success. There are so many people who make a lot of money in business but who are absolutely miserable. There are others who do what they consider to be their life's work, which does not bring them bags of money but they are truly happy regardless.

That 'keep going once you're so far in' philosophy is what one of my friends calls having punched the tar baby.

Thanks Derek - as always lots to consider, but the comment No. 199 below from Race Knower, that is also very wise - and made me feel that my efforts selling my CDs to raise money for cancer charities - even though it's all my time given for free, and my musical works, it is helping others - and makes me feel good - without monitory gain!

Brilliant!!

If you have a plan and stick to it, then when unbelievable deals come at you, you won't fall for them. As the old saying goes, if you don't have a plan, you plan to fail. And going into a deal like that is a sure fire way to fail.

Nice article, Derek. And good advice to be prudent before finding oneself in a sticky situation. We live and learn.

Hum... This seems very familiar!! A short time ago, I was watching an online economics class session, (I believe it was UCLA). This very same situation was being discussed, and the final analysis was that; some people are so chronically addicted to gambling, that they did not want to lose the bid.. and the rationale why people were bidding over the amount of a $100 was just that there was no rationale!!! Similiar to why people sign up for GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS!

perfect reminder!

Interesting as usual, Derek! Thanks for posting it. However, I couldn't help but wonder what inspired you to write this...

yes, i relate with you.
Should not go into such games and waste our precious years

We'll see.

It really depends on your definition of 'the end'. This might be good advice but on the other hand thinking too far ahead might keep you from starting. Spoiler alert: in the end nothing lasts. That is actually a good thing because else innovation would be much slower. Was this what that guy Darwin was trying to tell poeple?

Wonderful advice.

Hey Buddy, great advice in there. Thx

"198.Buddy Mix (2014-02-08) #

"When I produced the "Singer's Workout" dvd singing lesson, I came to the set with the finished art work to show everyone involved. The affect was palpable. Suddenly everyone knew what they were doing was going to become a product. I could tell from that moment how everyone stood a little taller as they realized this was a serious production.

"So, my advice to my students is create the end result and work backwards through all the steps. Make a time line along with a financial breakdown of the costs for each step in that time line.

"This will help you bring your dreams into reality. As a musician I truly believe it's essential to have something to leave your audience with after your performance i.e. a CD; a recording; something they can share with their friends and remember you by.

"Kelvin Throupe once said " Did you ever notice pilots who fly sky divers like to get paid in advance? "

"All musicians are sky divers. Do it from the heart and try to flex good judgement in the process so it is a memorable experience that you can be proud of at the end of the day." - Buddy

Buddy - as a play on the article here - start with your "end game".

Great story, and an even better lesson to remember!

Thank you Derek, for sharing your thoughts based on experiences you have gained through aches, pains, and your efforts pondering life as you help to move humanity forward. You are an inspiration that I cherish.

However - Doesn't often stickyness come from very unpredictable events? will my business partner always be honest? could my wife divorce and claim half of the house? will i get sick?
i fear that over analyzing could paralyze us; in financial terms, is what crisis does to entrepreneurs.

Look ahead - very important, as long as it doesn't stop us from the most important: do start.
i lost 150 USD, is this the end of the world?
i never tried this or that opportunity, well this is indeed the end of the world, i think.
☺ Good way of thinking about it. — Derek

Elyse O'Connor the singer and one decade of cdbaby.net thanks to you< Derek.
I really like thia article. Check out these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpXm03LiNsQ
Gregg Braden's The Divine Matrix
And best of all 20 month old Ella Mae Sings Elvis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmWa1gKrp6Q

Your lessons are always simple, visual, elegant, and sticky; this was a wonderful puzzle to keep the reminder alive.

As to your example, my brain automatically plays out multiple options (maybe per my acting background?) and wouldn't be attracted to/involved in that type of game.

What resonates with me is your real point:

it's worth thinking through the long-term implications/consequences.

This is tricky. I think the resistance may be ancient.

I often suspect our biological make-up keeps that teen's sense of immortality, purely living in the moment, per my lifetime's motto: "Nothing Bad Ever Happens To Me." So that we don't imagine any far personal future, or if we do, it's presumed idyllic, controllable... a fairy tale. (Not to exclude the kids who didn't get the chance to assume all this... not a social statement, just my experience -- I'm fairly immature.)

So Maybe our ancient survival instincts required a problem-solving ability in "present" situations (ie: I solved the problem of the game and rejected it before it could hurt me), but muted our ability to see into the unknown future in order to keep us bravely walking forward, "in the now," step by step, so we wouldn't panic/paralyze/jeopardize our tribe by becoming overwhelmed by the scary, unknowable Next.

Or... maybe that's just my excuse for living without much of a plan. :)

Thank you so much for making me think.
You do such good, it's nice to know you need reminders, too.

~GirlPie

That is why it is so important to listen to what our intuition is really saying. Also, something very hard to do...but with practice it begins to speak louder and louder. I'm still in training!
Thank you, Derek.

That's great advice and I am glad I read it right now. I needed to have read it right now and it makes perfect sense.

You are very right, ' We should always ask, “How will this game end?” '. Mistake #2 not understanding that everything could be the "game".

Interesting question might be, what helps develop foresight ... some might say developing a conscience ... or a conscience data base ...

"con" science ... short for "science of consciousness" perhaps ... hmm ...

I love coming back and checking the comments ...

"Do Start" ... that's advice to take to heart!

I soon found out when I met my sweetheart that she was a bit of a mess: living with her Mom, kept re-writing her resume but never applying; very messy kitchen, bedroom, car. But the sex was fantastic; she was brilliant and funny; and I gave it a try. Few, rare regrets. I took a chance and won! 14+ years...

Interesting read. I agree with you that long-term thinking is very important and can protect your livelihood; however, one must not let the fear of failure hold them back in life. I believe that there must exist a balance between playing it safe and taking a risk. Risk is the driving force of innovation.

I feel what you are saying, and I agree it is better to stay away, but the challenge is the issue, not if it can be won, but the trying to win no matter what the cost, it is in the trying, and believing it can be wion knowing all along there is no way, but trying anyway.

It's not about how much you "get" in life, but more importantly, how much you are
able to "give", during your life that counts.

Kim

if one is to apply the law of cause and effect and integrate what it inherently implies i.e. each person takes 100% responsibility for their actions knowing full well these are seeds (causes) that blossom into what our life is (effects), that is, our reality. if one lives by this basic premise, then one is very unlikely to behave as to have regrets.

Ooh I love this! I've always been a huge fan of Game Theories...!! I have to think about this in the context of my life for a bit. Thanks for posting it! :-) xx

Gentle Giant said it all on their 1974 release...playing the game

Hahahah-reminds me of eBay- people paying more than what something is worth just to win! Excellent counsel Derek- at any age. Love the decoratied donkey. :)

Where is this going? What are the deepest reasons for doing anything? What's up with the impulse for short term gains? What kind of hope/fear is wrapped up in that? Can we take a stand for something bigger?

I've been in the situation you describe many times, when I accepted a new university faculty job in a different city and I moved my home and family there. Each time the university quickly changed the nature of the job, adding unpleasant arduous duties, removing promised opportunities and support, and failing to manage administrative details. Each time severe problems became apparent, problems that were hidden from me before.

In one case I learned that the accreditation of the department that hired me was on probation, and that along with me they had hired dozens, doubling the faculty size. Shortly after full accreditation was achieved a few months later, the department laid off half the faculty. A few years later the department completely lost accreditation. In a different university the chairman pressured me to commit a felony for his benefit, falsifying records.

Bottom line: Don't expect fairness from administrators. It's all about money. Even if fairness was intended, fairness will collapse under stress.

Thought provoking Derek (and well written). I think the fundamental long-term thinking is to recognize my life is finite and could end anytime. When I'm aware of that, I tend to be more conscious and aware of what is important. To me it's being with people I love and doing the things that matter to me. However, I'm guilty of the behaviour you describe and appreciate the reflection...

It is common to make that short term thinking mistake, most of the times we make it is just for the laziness of giving things a deep thought.

Most of the time, this applies. You right about life situations and trying to think them through BEFORE you get in over your head. Certainly buying a house or doing a business deal without thinking through the possible outcomes is not wise.
However, there are instances when you cannot afford to think about the consequences.

Foe example, there's a painting or piece of music inside you that you've always wanted to make physical. It might take time, money, special materials, people with special skills you don't have, etc. In all likelihood, you will lose your invested time and money, especially if you commit to paying all the people with various types of expertise to help you with your project. While you may add the project to your resume, it may or may not be useful in those terms. So what you are really looking at in terms of outcomes is a sense of accomplishment, and a completed project that may in some cases be relevant to help you embark on other future projects. But again, unless by some non-zero but VERY SMALL chance that it is marketed and the public decides they want to pay for it in large numbers (or pay a LOT for the single instance of it you will produce), you will, in all likelihood, lose all the money and time you will have invested.

Should you do it anyway?

My answer would be YES.

In "Thinking Strategically", Dixit describes similar "dilemmas" and all kinds of other interesting things.

Thinking forward is a great skill :)

just try not to hurt people at all..!

Whatever game produces the greatest good for the greatest number of people, living things, the planet, etc., is the best game one can play. Since the goal is long term, it's going to be the most challenging AND rewarding! You can either make a game for yourself and others to play (like Steve Jobs, for example), or you can play the game that another has created because it aligns with your purpose. Either way, it should be FUN! If it's not, no matter the purpose, better find a new game!

Thanks. I could see this story also being about the desire to be "right" or "best" or getting the last word...I was working on a training recently trying to figure out how to explain the aspect of needing to focus on what's in-front of you, while also looking ahead. I was trying to put it in the context of working backwards, or starting from where you want to be, with the big picture and big goals, rather than the first steps. Of course the dilemma is that you have to act in the moment, so the challenge is working on the small goals with the big one in mind. Anyway, a bit of a ramble, but I think people paint themselves into a corner (like your story) when they don't think out a ways. Rock on, George

The corollary to the partner who is cheating is the futility of fighting the subconscious mind, which is forcing us to forget them, even if they are you're first pick, for psychological reasons

The world often has no very pleased expression on it's face and teaching manners does not extend to smiling

Yeah, typical over-acheiver over-competitive pitfall. Not only that , who will they tread on , what will they destory, to win the game. I was gonna blame western culture , but rather I think it's human nature at fault here. Man has the brains to be better than that, and we should be building a culture to counter the winner-takes-it-all myth.

Long-term point of view... not a particularly Western practice, nor a natural human tendency, is it? a focus on generations to come, stewardship of the Earth, what was the term... reciprocal maintenance... and that beyond oneself

Yeah, kinda reminds me of those idiots who enjoy running with ( more correctly against) the bulls.

This brought to mind my father's lifelong admonition to us: "stay out of debt". He made an exception for a primary home loan, but taught us by example to defer our gratifications, save for those things we wanted until we could pay for them in cash, never carry a c/c balance, and how staying debt-free deeply contributes to a life of real personal freedom.

We are not perfect...so we will make mistakes...and that is okay...Perhaps the thing to remember is there is always a lesson...and the key is to learn the lesson...Once we learn it...the challenge is to try not to repeat it and move on....Thanks Derek....Take care...

I would stop my bidding at $50 maximum. How will this game end?

Where were you 50 years ago when I could/should have used that advise?

But isn`t the beauty of life exactly about these little stupid things? For someone who fell in love with a person in relationship this might be the most beautiful thing in his/her life.

It is important to be thoughtful, and yet, able to act with an open heart.

This is a great reminder and a question I wish I had asked myself more often before my 47 years on this planet, I'm asking it more now though, great post Derek, thanks

Most of life's situations can be summed up by how you answer any question. Will it be motivated by 'love of others' or 'love of self'. The game you proposed would have any participant being motivated by love of self, what's in it for me. When we choose wisely the things that are for love of others is when we win each and every time. I remember a comedian who always ran for president… as a joke. When asked in a press conference what he thought about "manifest destiny" he thought for a second and replied: "What's in it for me?"

Right on target once again, Derek. I hope you're putting together a book with all these thought provoking articles.

In recovery, we call that "thinking through drink." I've learned through intensive work on self and EQ, to be realistic about my motives regarding anything. Why am/would I do this? Validation? Acceptance, fear? The goal is to have no emotional investment in the outcome. That sounds harsh or bad, yet it's very powerful. If I'm not emotionally invested, I can give freely with few expectations.

I try to start any process or action at the end and work my way backwards to the present. It has helped me more than once to avoid huge mistakes. Of course, it's not always possible when you have stars in your eyes.

I'm so glad I put my cd on your site, you are a treasure in my life.

Great point... has anyone ever tried auctioning off $100 before?

This is game theory at it's best, Derek. "Thinking how the game will end" is "backward induction".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backward_induction

Hi Derek!
I just thought I'd check in to see how Singapore is treating you! Where are you living now? And how is life here going for you? I hope it's all good!! I love reading your words of wisdom... thanks, buddy!!!

Even though I know how important it is to use my capacity for creating ideas and thinking them through carefully, I still haven't created the habit. As you suggested, it's hard to think through a decision carefully and not fearfully. Maybe it comes down to how much we love and respect ourselves? Exercising our imaginations while improving our relationship with ourselves often leads to thinking through life's decisions with care as well as self-actualization.

I try to think through to the end game all the time... unfortunately, it makes me end up never doing anything - never starting anything. I wonder if there really ever are any games that are worth playing.

Very good advice. I am frustrated by a thought process that seems to be very popular in modern American culture: the idea that if something doesn't work out the way you planned, then the system is rigged against you. Take responsibility for your own bad decisions.

Can not agree how many times I wished after the fact I would have asked myself this! As Homer Simpson would say 'doh' great piece!

Hi Derek,
It seems like everyone goes through the same pitfalls in the world.
All four story reminds me of our own, or other people's lives.
I like your thoughts!
Thanks!!

This is quite brilliant. Leaves me to think about what I should not even start 'bidding' for in the first place.

Wisdom! You are a forethinker Derek.

Ho Ho Ho hind sight is so clear, and experience so dear...

Interesting.
Small typo: "lose the entire $99", should be $98.

Derek, you make it hard for me because I just had to face my demons. Life is what we make it. Which road do I take that is the question I've asked myself many times and still knowing that the road I've chose was not the right one I still did it. Crazy isn't it.

"The game" can change after it starts, and sometimes by design the real game is not discernible, but asking ourselves how the game will end might give us a better chance of staying out of bad places.

When I made my down payment on my new home I did a speech at my toastmasters club:

For house hunting, of course I initially decided how much to pay, and how long to commute. In the end, did I weaken, and "add a little" to my mortgage millstone, and "add a little time" to my commute? No, I found the discipline to "know how it would end," and to stick to my numbers, by remembering university:

For some semesters I was tempted to add another course. But if I didn't, then midway through, as I was groaning under my studies, I would always think, "This is almost too hard! Good thing I don't add any more courses this semester!" So no, I would decide my numbers in advance, and stick to what I decided.

While my toastmasters club is for adults, we all knew that one of our members was secretly a teenage girl in high school. I finished my speech by looking at her and saying, "So when you are with a boy, decide in advance how far you will go." We all laughed.

Reminds me of Naval Ravikant's 'Play stupid games, win stupid prizes'.

The application for me is arguing. Both just get angrier and angrier.