Introduction

I made a number of technology predictions for 2022 here. Let’s look at how I did and make a fresh set of predictions for 2023. With the pandemic continuing, global supply chains still in turmoil and the war in Ukraine dragging on, there are a lot of unknowns going forwards. I’m optimistic 2023 will be a good year.

Looking Back on 2022

Let’s look at last year’s predictions and how we did:

• The CPU Wars Rage On: This was an easy one and we saw new generations of chips from ARM, Intel and AMD. Apple introduced their M2 CPU, newer process technologies came online producing higher transistor counts in smaller areas. This will continue as the competition is intense and the amount of money being invested is huge.
• New Generations of Graphics Cards: This did happen, both nVidia and AMD introduced their next generation of graphics cards. However, I feel the new generation disappointed, not offering the huge performance boosts promised. Further, even though demand is way down, supply is still tight and prices are way too high.
• Ransomware & Hacking: Again an easy one. There were many high profile victims last year. Twitter being a bad one, showing why it isn’t a good idea to fire your security team.
• Self-Driving Cars: This one was wrong. I feel after last year that self-driving cars seem even further away. There were a number of notable failures and crashes in this area. Still I think the problems are solvable and it’s only a matter of time.
• Raspberry Pi 5: This didn’t happen and Eben Upton has stated that it won’t appear in 2023 either, due to supply chain problems.

Looking Ahead to 2023

Besides the continuations from 2022, here are a few new predictions.

New AI Applications Blossom

There is a huge amount of interest in ChatGPT. I asked ChatGPT to write this article but received:

I guess my job is safe, until ChatGPT starts browsing the Internet.

Apple released a service that uses AI to produce audio books for writers. Many are predicting the end of the job of narrator.

Through 2023, we’ll see many more AI applications released that will move us closer and closer to true general AI. I’m pretty sure we won’t reach general AI in 2023, but our computer hardware is approaching the complexity of the brain.

The Renaissance in DIY Electronics

Designing circuit boards, creating industry automation and designing computer chips used to be exceedingly expensive. Now we have:

• Open source software like KiCad and OpenPLC.
• Low cost developer boards like those from Digilent for creating FPGAs.
• Low cost manufacturing tools like 3D printers and laser cutters.
• Low cost computers like the various Raspberry Pis to be the brains of the creations.

Continuing Supply Chain Problems

Some supply problems have eased and demand for electronics has slackened noticeably. However, more stringent US export regulations are putting bureaucratic brakes on the shipment of electronics. For instance, to get the software for a $200 FPGA board that is available on Amazon, I had to send in all sorts of ID and emails to prove I wasn’t Russian or Iranian. As the US locks down exports to China, China is locking down exports back, causing more supply chain problems.

RISC-V Competes with the Raspberry Pi

The various companies behind the open source RISC-V processor family finally produce a CPU that is powerful enough to create a board equivalent to a Raspberry Pi. Currently there are quite a few low power RISC-V microcontrollers, but the availability of a development board equivalent to at least a Raspberry Pi has been sorely missing. They won’t be able to compete with higher end laptops and desktops yet, but at least getting a decent board that runs Linux will be a huge step in the right direction.

Electric Cars Become Mainstream

There is huge demand for electric cars, but the waiting lists to buy them are ridiculous. Finally, supply will start to catch up with demand as more mainstream car manufacturers such as Fiat-Chrysler bring their electric cars to market. There will need to be a matching proliferation of charging stations as already with the few electric cars on the road, there can often be long lineups. The technology in these vehicles is amazing and if they can reduce the charge time, the last obstacle to adoption will be removed.

Summary

In spite of all the supply chain problems and inflationary price pressure, 2022 was a good year for technology. We are seeing prices moderating and supply in some areas being restored, but 2023 will still be a bumpy year. I am excited about the prospects for new advances in AI, electric cars and RISC-V processors. I’m hopeful that I’ll have lots to write about this year.