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If FinFET failed then we'd be there by now. If the deep industry pivots (FinFET,...

 2 years ago
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TSMC in 2011:

"We have firm plans to build a 450mm pilot line in Fab12 phase 6, which will start with 20nm devices in 2013/2014. Full production in 2015/2016. Going to 450mm wafers was a simple business decision - everything about 20nm is expensive"

..and then FinFET took over.

It was an interesting time. The whole industry was set on 450mm but then it said "we'll stick to 300mm forever".

They had to stop investing in 450mm when the R&D and capex costs went through the roof even when adjusting for transistor density. With EUV it only gets worse.

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If FinFET failed then we'd be there by now. If the deep industry pivots (FinFET, EUV, GAA) stop happening in the future, or take too long, then there might be a pivot back to looking at wafer size. But not for the next 10 years at least.
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Yeah, with such big investments at stake for every fab upgrade the industry has to prioritize. The switch to 450mm would require a lot of retooling and don't even improve the performance of chips.

It would be cool to see a Cerebras WSE made from a 450mm wafer though.

It would increase the manufacture capacity for EUV scanner for sure. Euv scanner only have half Duv scanner manufacture capacity per hour. EUV scanner might keep reducing manufacture capacity going foward. 450mm might be viable by then.

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