Could the Earth's Record Hot Streak Signal a New Climate Era? - Slashdot

Posted by EditorDavid

on Saturday April 20, 2024 @06:34PM from the global-warning dept.

South America's Amazon River has reached its lowest level since measurements began, according to the Washington Post, while temperatures "hovered above 110 degrees Fahrenheit" for nearly a week as April began in the capital of Mali. "Nights offered little relief, with temperatures often staying above 90 degrees..."

"An overtaxed electrical grid sputtered and shut down," they add, and "dehydration and heat stroke became epidemic... At the city's main hospital, doctors recorded a month's worth of deaths in just four days. Local cemeteries were overwhelmed."

The historic heat wave that besieged Mali and other parts of West Africa this month — which scientists say would have been "virtually impossible" in a world without human-caused climate change — is just the latest manifestation of a sudden and worrying surge in global temperatures. Fueled by decades of uncontrolled fossil fuel burning and an El Niño climate pattern that emerged last June, the planet this year breached a feared warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Nearly 19,000 weather stations have notched record high temperatures since January 1. Each of the last ten months has been the hottest of its kind.

The scale and intensity of this hot streak is extraordinary even considering the unprecedented amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, researchers say. Scientists are still struggling to explain how the planet could have exceeded previous temperature records by as much as half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) last fall. What happens in the next few months, said Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, could indicate whether Earth's climate has undergone a fundamental shift — a quantum leap in warming that is confounding climate models and stoking ever more dangerous weather extremes.

But even if the world returns to a more predictable warming trajectory, it will only be a temporary reprieve from the conditions that humanity must soon confront, Schmidt said. "Global warming continues apace."
Will this summer's La Niña cool things off? More atmospheric research is underway, and "Schmidt says it's too soon to know how worried the world should be," according to the article. But he does raise this possibility. "What if the statistical connections that we are basing our predictions on are no longer valid?"

"It's niggling at the back of my brain that it could be that the past is no longer a guide to the future."