GenAI smartphones expected to make up 11% of shipments this year

Thursday, 18 April 2024 09:55

GenAI smartphones expected to make up 11% of shipments this year Featured

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About 11% of the smartphones sold during calendar year 2024 will be capable of using GenAI, the technology analyst firm Counterpoint Research says. adding that this estimate was higher than an earlier one made in December 2023. The figure was predicted to rise to 43% by 2027.

The update was needed, the firm said, because of the anticipated entry of Apple into this segment later in 2024.

Counterpoint defined a GenAI smartphone as "a mobile device that leverages large-scale, pre-trained generative AI models to create original content or perform contextually-aware tasks".

It added: "We expect such devices to have multimodal capabilities, allowing them to process text, image, voice and other inputs to generate a variety of output and enable a user experience that is fluid and seamless.

"We expect the hardware specifications of such devices will likely evolve as the technology advances. But at present, a device should have hardware capabilities that are comparable to, or exceed, the performance of current flagship smartphones to effectively run generative AI models."

Research director Tarun Pathak said more than 10 OEMs had launched more than 30 GenAI-capable smartphones so far.

"AI in smartphones has been a key talking point since the start of this year, especially after the successful debut of the Galaxy S24 series, where Samsung has gained good mind share in marketing early AI use cases," he noted.

"We expect Samsung to lead GenAI smartphone OEM rankings in 2024. This is the second trend in the past couple of years where Samsung enjoyed an early-mover advantage; the first being success of its foldables.

"The AI advantage will provide Samsung momentum in the mid-to-premium smartphone segment as GenAI features get recognised more broadly in coming years.”

Pathak said once Apple entered the segment, "we expect AI to immediately become a must-have feature in all mid-to-premium smartphone launches starting 2025. However, the real differentiation will lie in use cases, as consumers are still evaluating the potential impact of AI in their future devices.”

Counterpoint associate director Mohit Agrawal said smartphones of the future would be more personalised to cater to individual needs and preferences, and AI would play a central role in driving these personalised experiences.

"As OEMs differentiate themselves on AI positioning, the key here will be the evolution of AI use cases," he explained. "Currently, these use cases include enhanced imaging capabilities, translation features, improved app experiences, content recommendations, creating more personalised content, and more.

"These use cases will evolve as large language models will continue to grow in both size and efficiency. Counterpoint believes that the integration of edge (mobile devices) and cloud will be the mainstream model for generative AI in smartphones, and OEMs with an equally strong play in software capabilities, along with strategic industry partnerships, are likely to stay ahead of the competition.”

The analyst firm said it expected GenAI smartphones to hit an inflection point in 2025 as they appeared in broader price segments, especially the US$400-US$599 (A$621-A$930) price tier.

The phones costing more than US$600 and also those in the US$400-US$599 price bands were predicted to account for nine out of every 10 GenAI smartphones sold in 2024.

"Leading chipset companies such as MediaTek and Qualcomm have already taken the lead in embracing generative AI smartphones. They have launched several mobile computing platforms that support multimodal large AI models on devices," the firm said.

"We expect Qualcomm to lead in the AI SoC space in 2024, capturing almost half of all GenAI smartphone shipments, followed by MediaTek with a 13% share."

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