CHANGE IS INEVITABLE

US Demographic Pyramid, 1900–2020, Kaj Tallungs (Wikimedia Commons)

A population pyramid is a basic presentation in demography, the study of populations. By convention, it divides a population by sex (not gender; that’s something else) and uses stacked bars to show the number of people in a population by age and sex. Since there are almost always more young people than old—more are born each year than die, and dead people are removed from the stack—the pyramid is usually larger at the bottom than at the top.

A significant disaster—such as war, plague, or an environmental crisis—can leave a hole that moves up the pyramid over time. The Soviet Union's losses in WWII left a scar that would last for generations.

The Demographic Transition

Economic development, by improving the odds of children and mothers surviving childbirth, creates a “population explosion.” This broadens the pyramid's base and floods a national economy with workers in years to come. On the other side of the demographic transition, assuming it is achieved, births will balance deaths and eventually be insufficient to meet the need for workers to support the aging population.

The demographic transition, Max Roser (Wikimedia Commons)

On a global level, this means still-developing countries are the fastest-growing group, with India having the largest population on Earth.

The global population pyramid, with projections to 2100, Max Roser (Wikimedia Commons)

UN projections are consistent. On the other side of the demographic transition, the world population growth should stabilize around 2050. The total population should peak at slightly more than 10 billion people in 2080. Following this will be a long, slow decline through the remainder of this century and into the next.

United Nations/Our World in Data, 2022 (Creative Commons)

This need in the developed world is met in part by immigration, and in part by automation. Without immigration, the population of Europe would already be in decline. Japan has attempted to meet its natural decline, in part, through developments in robotics. Unfortunately, maintaining the robots has turned out to require still more workers. This, in turn, has forced Japan to accept more immigration.

The American Case

This brings us to the United States. The total fertility rate in the United States in 2021 is estimated at 1.664 children per woman, below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1. Only immigration keeps the American economy above water.

Because of the need for immigration, whether legal or not, the United States joins the ranks of developed countries that must redefine what it means to be a citizen and a nation.

The problem is made more difficult by many people’s obsession with “race.” Race is not a biological concept, no matter how many in a position of relative privilege have tried to define it that way.

In the United States, at one time, Italian-Americans and Irish-Americans weren’t “white.” Today, white nationalists and neo-Nazis should be careful about checking their genetic backgrounds. Most of them, based on the legal criteria applied in the mid-20th century, aren’t “white.”

For example, based on DNA evidence, Thomas Jefferson had at least one and most likely six children with Sally Hemmings. Several of them passed as “white” after Jefferson’s death. Others did not. By family tradition, I’m a descendant of one of those who passed. (I’m also a descendant of Genghis Khan, but who isn’t?)

To excuse institutionalized racism for centuries, Americans have been among those who have accepted their historically contingent illusions. Americans are not, by any means, the most racist people. That prize probably goes to the North Koreans, followed by the Chinese, the Russians, the Japanese, and other states that have made direct descent by blood a critical legal criterion for citizenship.

The concepts of jus soli (the conferral of citizenship to those born on the territory or soil of the state) and jus sanguinis (the conferral of citizenship to persons with a citizen parent or by blood) form the basis for the definition of citizenship around the world.

Countries with large immigrant populations like the United States, Canada, Australia, and the majority of Latin American nations give citizenship unconditionally to everyone born on their soil, as well as to the offspring of their citizens who are born abroad. This has resulted in unanticipated consequences, such as South Koreans traveling to the United States to give birth before returning home. South Korean citizenship is defined by blood. Americans are citizens by birth. South Korea recognizes dual citizenship. Thus, with a little preplanning, South Korean mothers give their children the option of avoiding conscription into military service based on their American citizenship.

Policies regarding citizenship and naturalization that are primarily founded on jus sanguinis are only applicable to ethnic groups and their ancestors. Jus sanguinis principles have been emphasized in the majority of European nations, as well as in Asia.

Responses to the Demographic Transition

Because of the need to maintain the economy, citizenship and naturalization policies in Europe have become more inclusive. Access has been opened to long-term residents and their children. This is one major reason Germany replaced its conservative jus sanguinis laws in 1999 with a more liberal jus soli policy.

Still, no European country grants unconditional birthright citizenship to the children of immigrants. The children of immigrants (second generation) gain access to citizenship only after fulfilling certain residency or age requirements. For example, second-generation children born in France of two non-French parents cannot become French citizens until they turn 18, and then only if they have resided in France for at least five years.

Relative liberalization has been a common response, but not a unanimous one. Some countries whose nationality laws were predicated upon jus soli and that have attracted large numbers of immigrants — such as the UK and Ireland — have adopted more restrictive citizenship policies. The United Kingdom, when informed that its naturalization policies are contrary to the European Declaration of Human Rights, used this as one of its reasons to leave the European Union. Brexit was stupid. It’s one of the reasons the UK is suffering more economically than other European states.

People and countries are free to make whatever choices they wish. They can even make a substantial effort (like North Korea) to cut themselves off from the rest of the world. But they cannot escape the results of those choices.

North Korea from Space, 2014. North Korea is the dark region between South Korea and China. NASA. (Wikimedia Commons)

Although globalization (the free movement of money, goods, and people) has slowed due to COVID and war, the general trend continues. Those who take advantage of it prosper. Those who reject it fail. The future of the world is integration.

America is Not Immune

America has its own problems. It began with two large populations that were excluded by law from being considered “American”: indigenous people and slaves. Their descendants continue to suffer from discrimination. Most “white” Americans have ignored that or are willing to accept it.

The election of Barack Obama (Euro-American mother, Kenyan father) forced the issue. As an intelligent, articulate, competent, and charismatic man, if his skin had been a few shades lighter, he could have “passed” and be just another politician. But in America, as it is, that was not an option. Some celebrated his election as a sign of progress. Some saw it as an assault on “their” country. Donald Trump rose in prominence by providing a way to deal with some people’s cognitive dissonance: he declared that Obama was foreign-born. Hence, they reasoned, they weren’t racist; Obama was an illegitimate candidate.

The population pyramid reflects the changing definitions of race in the United States. In 1790 there were three classes of people counted: Whites, Slaves, and Other free persons.

The national census of 1790, Pew Research Center (Creative Commons)

To this day, the census bureau decides what racial categories to recognize, and expects its citizens to report their self-defined placement into one of them. This has had some effects on the population pyramid, and some interesting policy implications.

States See What They Choose to See

Before 1950, U.S. census takers imposed categories based on their judgment of appearances. When in doubt, a dark-skinned person was labeled "Negro"—a category that was eliminated in the 2020 census.

Rules for determining “race” in 1930 (Pew Research Center)

There were no “Hispanics” before 1950; no “Latinos” before 1970. In 2020, people were allowed to select their category from the list of options, and to claim “other” if they believed it appropriate. (I always label myself as “other—human.” For whatever reason, in 2020 about 8.4 percent of the population joined me.) Every time a new category has been accepted, the number of non-Hispanic whites has declined overnight.

Categories used in the census over time, Pew Research Center (Creative Commons)

If one considers only “white” people to be Americans, I have bad news for you: you’re already well on your way to being outnumbered.

Many of these people realize it. That’s why the most committed Trump supporters come from counties where foreign immigrants and non-white Americans have come to significantly change the composition of formerly “white” communities. Support for Trump was more likely if high-status groups felt discriminated against. The majority of those who believed that white people face more discrimination than minorities also felt that men and Christians face more discrimination than Muslims and women, despite the fact of the former groups’ dominant status.

I immigrated to America with my family in 1977, and with each passing year, I found the United States more and more welcoming — until 2016. It wasn’t just Donald Trump who assumed power; it was an army of nativists who voted for him because they wanted to Make America White Again. Hate crimes surged, and anti-immigrant invective, including incitement to murder, found nightly vent on mainstream airwaves. — Suketu Mehta (2020)

The feeling that “the American way of life is threatened” has been a consistent predictor of Trump support. In panel studies, Trump’s support was uniquely tied to animus toward minority groups.

It’s not a political thing. It’s a we-love-our-country thing. You’re either for America or you’re not. — Alecia Vaught, Trump activist (2022)

Being “for America” is often seen as more important than being “for democracy." If institutions already aren’t trusted, votes can be rejected as “fake news” if they are seen as being in opposition to assumed norms and relationships.

A lot of white Americans who are really threatened are willing to reject democratic norms, because they see it as a way to protect their status. — Ashley Jardina, George Mason University (2022)

This is the reason some people, even after being shown Trump’s central involvement in the January 6th insurrection, are more firmly committed to the Trump camp and the “Big Lie.”

But, as the population pyramid demonstrates, these people are on the wrong side of history. Demographic turning points are being passed. As of now, fewer than half of the children born in the U.S. are non-Hispanic white. As the Boomers age, the number of people aged 85 and older (predominantly white) is expected to nearly double by 2035 (from 6.5 million to 11.8 million) and nearly triple by 2060 (to 19 million people). The number of people who are Two or More Races is projected to be the fastest-growing group over the next several decades, followed by Asians and Hispanics.

By 2028, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population is projected to be higher than at any time since 1850. Before the end of this decade, the number and percentage of foreign-born people living in the United States will reach a historic high: 14.9 percent of the U.S. population. By 2030, net international migration is expected to become the primary driver of population growth in the United States. By 2060, about one in six people living in the U.S. will have been born in another country. And of those whites who remain, most will be old enough to be dependent on these immigrants to pay into Social Security and support their standard of living.

White America is Dying

In that sense, those who worry about “great replacement theories” have a point. But it’s not on purpose. There is no “plan” to replace whites or those with status. Poor families—often immigrants and racial minorities—have more children. That’s true between countries, and it’s true within them.

And in principle, America is in a better position than most to profit from this reality. A country founded on the principle of equality for all does not require those people to be white, Protestant, or any other group. Russia is driven to deny the identity of Ukrainians in order to maintain and expand its empire. China denies the existence of Taiwan as an independent country because so many people living there are ethnic Han. At the same time, by labeling and excluding non-Russian and non-Han people, both Russia and China create problems within their borders.

In the United States, the fastest-growing racial group is “two or more races.” This is all the more remarkable when you remember that Asians were excluded by law, Mexicans were used and excluded in keeping with the needs of the American economy, and until the late 1960s, anti-miscegenation laws were passed by many American states to prohibit interracial marriage and interracial sexual relations.

Anti-miscegenation laws. Grey: never passed. Green: removed by 1887. Yellow: removed 1948–1967. Red: removed by the Supreme Court in 1967. (Wikimedia Commons)

Given current trends, the average “face” of America will soon look like this:

Photo by Art Hauntington on Unsplash

plus a wide range of alternatives.

Personally, I find that face beautiful, and entirely “American.”

If someone can’t accept that as "American,” they have a limited set of options. One option, promoted by white Christian nationalists like those on Gab, is giving up on changing America and creating a parallel society.

The Globalists can subvert and control the entire American political system, but they can’t stop you from starting a family and being fruitful as God commands. They can’t stop you from being happy despite their control and chaos. They can’t stop you from worshipping Christ. They can’t stop you from getting healthy and eliminating sin and vice from your life.

You want to fight back? This is how: focus on what you can control. You can control how you raise your children. You can control the content you consume. You can control what you eat and what you do with your time. You can control how and where you spend your money. Focus on these things and stop being so concerned and absorbed in things beyond your control, like national politics.

Gab’s Focus for 2023

Our content theme at Gab in 2023 is going to be focused on producing, promoting, and elevating people and businesses who provide resources and information on: Homesteading, Homeschooling, and Homemaking. We are working towards building a digital Christian nation that operates in parallel to the corrupt American kingdom and its wicked culture. That kingdom is not ours. It will fall. It’s time to start acting like it and building for the glory of God’s Kingdom. We hope you’ll join us. — Andrew Torba, CEO of GAB.com (2023)

This option, like North Korea’s withdrawal from the global system, is a path to poverty. At best, these alternate communities will join the Amish: faithful, technologically backward, and relatively deprived. (It should be noted that the Amish already have institutionalized methods to expose their youth for a year to “see the world,” and lose some in the process. They have also adopted, slowly, more modern ideas and technologies.)

Another option, suggested by some racists and neo-Nazis, is a race war. These “accelerationists” want to trigger a conflagration that will literally “Make America White Again.” But even if they were to trigger violence, the outcome is foreordained: they’ll lose. They have neither the numbers nor the hardware to be more than a dangerous annoyance.

Demography is destiny, and one either accepts it, celebrates it, or suffers the consequences. I celebrate it.

If someone can’t, and they believe in “America, love it or leave it,” I can only offer one piece of advice: leave.

But the trends are global, and they will be hard-pressed to find a place to go.