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‘Big Short’ hedge funder says he thinks we’re headed for a ‘run-of-the-mill’ rec...
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‘Big Short’ hedge funder says he thinks we’re headed for a ‘run-of-the-mill’ recession—but the bigger ‘paradigm shift’ is really on his mind
Tech and growth-focused stocks have dominated markets for over a decade, but a “paradigm shift” is coming as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation, according to Steve Eisman, senior portfolio manager at the Neuberger Berman Group. Eisman rose to fame for his successful bet against subprime mortgages in the lead up to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, which was depicted in Michael Lewis’s 2010 book, The Big Short, and subsequent movie of the same name, in which a character resembling him was played by Steve Carell.
“Markets have long periods of paradigms where certain groups are leaders,” the hedge funder told Bloomberg in an episode of the Odd Lots podcast Monday. “Sometimes those paradigms change violently, and sometimes those paradigms change over time, because people don’t give up their paradigms easily. And I think we’re going through a period, possibly, like that again.” Eisman pointed to Thomas Kuhn’s 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, as evidence that markets may be undergoing a gradual, yet volatile paradigm shift.
“When Einstein created his theory of relativity, for example…It’s not like everybody said, ‘Oh, we’ve been waiting for Einstein, thank God, now we can get rid of Newton.’ It took several years for people to realize that that was a better theory. I think something like that happens in markets,” he said. “Paradigms are so deeply ingrained in people’s brains they can’t even imagine, at times, that there could be anything else.”
After years of soaring tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris, a Houston-based investment firm, told Fortune in December that he also expects a paradigm shift in markets this year as investors take a more conservative approach.
“I think you occasionally get a turning of the investment and economic age, and we’re at one of those now after over a decade of near-zero interest rates,” he said. “Periods of euphoria need to be followed by periods of abstinence.”
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