Drivers have stopped panicking, now that gasoline prices have dropped from $5 per gallon in June to less than $4. But global energy markets are still turbulent, and the next pinch might come from winter prices for heat and electricity.

Tight energy markets began pushing up the price of natural gas, America’s largest source of electricity, in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the corresponding energy war in Europe have further boosted global gas prices, with Europe facing soaring costs and possible blackouts this winter. Price hikes in the United States aren’t as severe, but US natural gas is still trading about 65% higher than a year ago, and 170% higher than two years ago.

That means winter power and heating costs are likely to be considerably higher than last year, which itself was a budget breaker.

“We’re looking at fairly high gas prices, so all things equal, electricity prices should be higher as well,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal at ESAI Energy, tells Yahoo Finance. “We’re going to have a pretty strong winter [for prices].”

Energy costs for homes and businesses have been one of the key drivers of high inflation. Overall inflation is running 8.3% year-over-year, but home energy costs are up 21%. Just about everybody knows the price of gasoline, since it’s posted on giant numbers at every filling station. Almost nobody knows the price of natural gas or electricity, which is buried in the fine print on monthly utility statements. People certainly notice when their monthly bill arrives, but consumers don’t adjust to higher heating or electricity costs as quickly or aggressively as they do to higher pump prices.

The Energy Department forecasts a 7.5% jump in electricity prices for 2022, which would be the largest jump since 2006. That may shock some families, given that Americans have gotten used to stable electricity prices. From 2011 through 2020, electricity prices rose by an average of just 1.3% per year.

Natural gas prices are likely to go higher, too, with the Energy Department forecasting prices of about $9 per 1 million BTUs by the end of this year. The current price is around $7, so that would be about 30% higher by mid-winter. Since most people use natural gas or electricity for heat (or both), there’s no escaping higher costs. The price of heating oil and propane, used by a smaller portion of households, has been rising, as well. The declining cost of solar power is about the only good news, but few households use solar for winter heat.