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‘The numbers are catastrophically bad.’ Top economists are sounding the alarm on...

 1 year ago
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‘The numbers are catastrophically bad.’ Top economists are sounding the alarm on inflation

Colin Lodewick
Sat, June 11, 2022, 3:54 AM·4 min read
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Liu Jie—Xinhua/Getty Images

For nearly a year, inflation has been hammering Americans. Every month when the Consumer Price Index report gets released, rates have stayed high or gone higher.

Hopes that elevated prices were beginning to settle were dashed Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data showing that the CPI, its broad measure for prices of goods and services, reached 8.6% for the month of May.

The number represents the highest level of inflation in the U.S. since 1981, and it has top economists starting to get worried—like, really worried.

“The overall reality for the Fed is that inflation is not under control,” Charlie Ripley, a senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, told Fortune. He said he sees Friday’s CPI release as proof that the central bank needs to be more aggressive in its approach to inflation and institute greater interest rate hikes throughout this year.

The Fed has already increased its baseline interest rate twice this year in an attempt to rein in inflation. The first hike came in March with a 25 basis point hike—its first in two years. Another 50 bps hike came in May.

A Bank of America Research team led by Aditya Bhave wrote on Friday that the market is pricing in another 50bps hike, even though the Fed is on course to hike by 25bps. In other words, it’s pessimistic.

The April CPI report showed that inflation had dropped to 8.3% following a previous peak of 8.5% in March, offering a faint glimmer of hope. Friday’s report, however, proves that inflation will be a more difficult puzzle to solve, especially as geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to impact the global economy in unpredictable ways.

“The numbers are catastrophically bad for Americans and the policymakers in Washington,” says Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tangler Investments, a Nashville-based firm, echoing comments she previously made to MarketWatch.

Though housing, airline fares, and used and new vehicles saw the highest price increases last month, almost all other areas saw increases of some sort, according to the BLS report. Price indexes for markets as varied as medical care, home goods, recreation, and apparel all showed increases in May.


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