Top Analyst Says Apple Car Unlikely to Arrive Until 2028

Rumors that Apple's autonomous car could arrive soon may have been greatly exaggerated.

Reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has pushed back on reports suggesting the Apple Car is imminent---or, at least, just a few years away---by claiming that the market is being "too bullish" about the eagerly anticipated Apple vehicle. Kuo said that an Apple Car is likely to arrive around 2028 or possibly even later, 9to5Mac reported.

If all things "go well," it could conceivably turn up between 2025 and 2027, Kuo wrote in a note to clients. But he would also "not be surprised" if launch was set for 2028 or beyond as a result of Apple's own standards, alongside developments in the autonomous and electric vehicle markets.

Challenges Apple Faces When Building an Apple Car

According to the website AppleTrack, Kuo has a reliability rating of 78.2%, based on 142 reported rumors. While that's not a perfect track record by any means, it puts him well into the top tier of Apple tipsters, with a past proven knowledge of Apple's supply chain.

In his note, Kuo also pointed out that some of the bullish enthusiasm for an Apple Car misses out on the fact that Apple is not always successful when it enters a new market.

Related: Apple's Self-Driving Car Could Enter Production by 2024

Yes, there are examples like iTunes, the iPhone, and the Apple Watch to show how Apple is able to take over a new sector soon after making its debut. But Kuo brought up a product like Apple's HomePod smart speaker, which has so far struggled to make much of a dent in the overall smart speaker market.

When it comes to the important question of artificial intelligence (AI) tech to power the Apple Car's autonomous driving, Kuo additionally wrote that Apple lags around five years behind companies like Tesla, Alphabet's autonomous car spinout Waymo, and others.

While Apple has been upping its focus on AI in recent years, there's no getting around the fact that autonomous driving is a massively complex problem to solve---and not necessarily one that Apple's best-placed to solve.

Coming Soon to a Garage Near You?

Apple has reportedly been working on an Apple Car dating back at least as far as 2014. Since then, the project has experienced no shortage of ups and downs, with large numbers of engineers leaving or being brought onto the project.

Most recently, Apple Car was supposedly shuffled around inside Apple to be moved under the control of Apple's head of AI---which makes plenty of sense given the problem it's trying to take on. Apple is rumored to be using some impressive next-gen battery tech for the vehicle.

Image Credit: Andy Wang/Unsplash CC

About The Author