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Someone Unearthed A 1997 Wired Article Predicting '10 Things That Could Go Wrong...

 2 years ago
source link: https://digg.com/2021/wired-article-future-predictions-came-true
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UM, NAILED IT

Someone Unearthed A 1997 Wired Article Predicting '10 Things That Could Go Wrong In The 21st Century' — And Nearly All Of Them Came True

James Crugnale

Nov 23, 2021 @15:48 PM
·Updated: Nov 23, 2021 @18:22 PM

As they say, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future — but it appears a duo of futurologists made some extraordinary prognostications about the world that, as it turns out, were nearly dead on.

The internet unearthed an old article, written by Pete Leyden and Peter Schwartz, from the July 1997 issue of WIRED magazine that made some eerily prophetic predictions about the 21st century that have "come true in one way or another" — including a pandemic, skyrocketing energy prices, climate change and Brexit.

WIRED

In a listicle attached to the story, Leyden and Schwartz predicted "ten scenario spoilers" that would "cut short" the economic boom of the 1990s.

– Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War — bordering on a hot one.

– New technologies turn out to be a bust. They simply don't bring the expected productivity increases or the big economic boosts,

– Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe.

– Europe's integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and Western Europe can't finesse a reunification, and even the European Unification process breaks down.

– Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that, among other things, disrupts the food supply - causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines.

– Major rise in crime and terrorism forces the world to pull back in fear. People who constantly feel they could be blown up or ripped off are not in the mood to reach out and open up.

– The cumulative escalation in pollution causes a dramatic increase in cancer, which overwhelms the ill-prepared health system.

– Energy prices go through the roof. Convulsions in the Middle East disrupt the oil supply, and alternative energy sources fail to materialize.

– An uncontrollable plague - a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people.

– A social and cultural backlash stops progress dead in its tracks, human beings need to choose to move forward. They just may not...

The infographic went viral on Reddit and Twitter, with many commentators reacting incredulously to the nearly 25-year-old predictions.

I remember this magazine cover from back in the day and it's remained lodged in my memory as 90s techno utopian insanity but hoooo boy is the body of the article a helluva punchline pic.twitter.com/sw59e5HsFQ

— 🌏🐶🦕🥳 Hieronymus Burps 🥦💥 and 68 others (@hieronymus_burp) November 19, 2021

As others have now pointed out: jackpot. https://t.co/LErVPHMwxM

— Adam Rogers (@jetjocko) November 22, 2021

We hit literally every single lose condition laid out here lol https://t.co/f2PhNs5HKI

— della ~ 🍒💣 (@della_morte_) November 22, 2021

Absolutely amazing scenarios in this July 1997 @WIRED article, take a read, scary accurate. I'd note DoD spends millions on forecasts and none are as accurate as this, not even close https://t.co/yxGmGep89t

— Clint Watts (@selectedwisdom) November 23, 2021

This is from a 1997 issue of @WIRED. Fellow forecasters, read it and weep. It's the holy grail of future scenario planning. How @PeteLeyden and Peter Schwartz got it so right is unnerving and utterly brilliant. Read their full feature here: https://t.co/UFIuN9FOSO #longboom https://t.co/DgqWKD8Cmy

— Tim Noakes (@TimNoakes) November 22, 2021

Co-author Leyden responded to his article going viral by noting that key parts of the economic boom have continued despite the setbacks he envisioned.

This is one of the recent spate of Tweets going around that picks up on how close my co-author and I came in the mid-1990s to pointing out the 10 main things that could disrupt the world by 2020. Some version of all 10 played out – yet the key parts of The Long Boom kept going. https://t.co/MczCLQssYe

— Peter Leyden (@peteleyden) November 23, 2021

[Read the full article on Archive.org]


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