Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: 1918 Flu
source link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560
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Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
44 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2020
Sergio Correia
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Stephan Luck
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Emil Verner
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management
Date Written: March 26, 2020
Abstract
What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.
Keywords:1918 Flu Pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), real economy
JEL Classification:E32, I10, I18, H1
Suggested Citation:
Correia, Sergio and Luck, Stephan and Verner, Emil, Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu (March 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561560
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